WINTER, WHAT'S IT GONNA BE BOY

I've had a great many of you inquire about what we can expect from the winter ahead? It's always fun to speculate, but in all honesty, an educated guess is all I can provide. Thus, keep in mind I'm just making observations on what I know are important factors, From there, I frame them in the hope of piecing together a picture that's realistic and telling.

As vast as the atmosphere is, it's a challenge to achieve this goal with the accuracy I would like. This year is especially tough, with some contradictory signs and a warming climate that tried and true analogs don't seem to fit anymore. Nevertheless, there are always clues, it's up to the individual to uncover and make sense of them. With that in mind, here are some of my thoughts on the winter of 2024-25.

LA NINA, RELATIVELY WEAK

One of the key drivers, (and virtually every winter forecast considers it), is the state of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO for short). El Niño and La Niña are opposite phases of a climate pattern across the tropical Pacific Ocean that swings back and forth every 3–7 years on average. Alternating pools of warm and cool water in the tropical Pacific—the world’s largest ocean— significantly influence where and how much rain falls there. When you consider 70 percent of the Earth's surface is water, it's hugely important to take into consideration sea surface temperatures, especially those in the Pacific where much of our weather originates.

Like a boulder dropped into a stream, the shift in the location of tropical rainfall disrupts the atmospheric circulation patterns that connect the tropics with the middle latitudes, which in turn modifies the mid-latitude jet streams. By modifying the jet streams, El Niño and La Niña can affect temperature and precipitation across the United States and other parts of the world. The influence on the U.S. is strongest during the winter (December-February).

The development of La Niña (cooler than normal sea surface temperatures) in the tropical Pacific, triggers changes in tropical rainfall and wind patterns that have impacts around the globe. For the United States, the most significant effect is a shift in the path of the mid-latitude jet streams. These fast, high-level winds play a major role in separating warm and cool air masses and steering storms from the Pacific across the U.S. 

The map below illustrates the typical impacts of El Niño and La Niña on U.S. winter weather. During La Niña, the Pacific jet stream often meanders high into the North Pacific before cutting a course southeast across the central Midwest. Southern and interior Alaska and the Pacific Northwest tend to be cooler and wetter than average, and the southern tier of U.S. states—from California to the Carolinas—tends to be warmer and drier than average. Farther north, the Ohio and Upper Mississippi River Valleys have a tendency to be wetter than average. During El Niño, these deviations from average are approximately (but not exactly) reversed.

This year the U.S. based CFSv2 (our climate model), was indicating a relatively strong La Nina with well below normal sea surface temperatures centered on the Equator and tropical Pacific...indicated in blue.

However, as you can clearly see the current departures are nowhere near what the model indicated and at this point a weak (to almost neutral) La Niña is in place.

That's a far different sea surface temperature look than last winter, which as you may recall was quite mild aside from a couple cold snowy weeks to start January. Last year is more of an antilog and similar results this winter are not likely.

Taken at face value, an average mid-range moderate La Niña produces a winter with near normal temperatures over the central Midwest.

Precipitation is generally near normal, perhaps slightly above.

As I stated, this year, sea surface temperatures barely reach the category of a weak La Niña. As such, the logical expectation is for marginal and less predictive results than would occur with a moderate to strong event. Thus, without a clear reliable ENSO signal, temperatures, precipitation, and snowfall should tend to be near the 30-year climatological means, in other words close to normal. Here's what average snowfall looks like in a weak La Niña. It's actually a bit above normal.

THE MADDEN JULIEN OSCILLATION AND OTHER TELECONNECTIONS

It would be easy to stop here, but that would not tell the whole story with plenty of other factors to consider, not the least of which is the Madden Julien Oscillation. Discovered in the early 1970s, (unlike an ENSO event which is stationary), the MJO is an eastward moving disturbance of clouds, rainfall, winds, and pressure in the tropics that rotates around the planet and returns to its initial starting point in 30 to 60 days. The MJO is distinctly different from La Niña or El Niño which, once established, is associated with persistent features that can last several seasons over the Pacific Ocean basin. With the MJO, there are multiple events within a season and the impacts vary on a week-to-week basis.

In a nutshell, the MJO is broken down into 8 phases, which are determined by the location of convection in the western Pacific. Research has concluded that each specific phase is related to temperature and precipitation patterns across North America at certain times of the year.

Below I have included today's phase diagram. It shows the 8 individual phases and, in this case, depicts the daily track of the GFS for the period October 17th to the 31st. If you follow the dotted lines you can see it traveling through phase 5, 6, and finally into 7.

At this time of year, phase 5 which we are headed into, produces above normal temperatures and below normal precipitation locally. That's exactly what our forecast is indicating. Phase 6 is similar.

But look what happens with phase 7 as we enter into November. That phase correlates to below normal temperatures and above normal precipitation. That is a very significant change if indeed the MJO is correctly forecast. This will be a good test of the MJO with results revealed in less than 2 weeks

Back to our winter. To get sustained cold, the MJO must spend the majority of its time in the colder phases. In the heart of winter that correlates to phases 8,1, and 2. Last year we spent much of the winter in 4,5, and 6, which is the holy grail of warmth.

The bottom line is that the MJO is a wildcard that is nearly impossible to see at this distance. It plays a major role in the severity of cold, and there is most likely going to be at least a couple periods where it will be favorable for cold outbreaks. Not only that, it can influence other teleconnections such as the NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation), the AO (the Arctic Oscillation), the EPO (the eastern Pacific Oscillation), and others. It can also work in conjunction with a stratospheric warming to generate Arctic outbreaks.

Something else I will be watching the next 2 weeks is the increase in snow cover that takes place at higher latitudes. There is no doubt that a deep snow pack breeds cold and helps to retain the strength of polar air masses that pass over it. The less the snow cover to our north, the less the chances of severe cold.

This winter, I am betting on quite a bit of variability in temperatures, with La Niña known for producing significant ups and downs. If we can develop a ridge far enough west to deliver cold and allow amplification of Midwest troughs, that may also lead to some snowy periods. However, that is a tricky nut to crack at this distance. I am concerned that this dry pattern may carry over into winter, leading to below normal precipitation. That said, if NW flow dominates, promoting dry conditions, it may also keep temperatures colder than normal. Even though it may be dry overall, we could end up with near normal snowfall thanks to the proximity of cold air.

Last but not least, while it may not be scientific, folklore accumulated over time is devoutly followed by some. Steve Gottschalk, a long time weather observer and folklore expert from Cedar County, Iowa, keeps data on such things as wooly bears, (caterpillars with stripes). This year he has found an over-abundance of wooly bears, at last count 208. He tracks the number of brown bands each year and adds them all together before dividing them by the number of caterpillars to get an index. Anything over 4.3 means a warmer winter. Currently, the index is at 5.2 which highly suggests a warmer than average winter.

Steve has been tracking wooly bear stripes for 47 years and found them to be correct indicators of temperature 37 times, a success rate of 79 percent. In years where he has found more than 45, snowfall has been normal to above 70 percent of the time, with La Niña years on the high end of the success ratio.

Additionally, Steve reports the snowbirds, or juncos, are back. He indicates that we typically see our first snowflakes approximately 2 weeks after they return, which would be around November 1st. That's about the time the MJO is shown entering phase 7. Hmmm, very interesting.

Considering Steve's folklore, my conclusion is that there is quite a bit of doubt regarding the evolution of winter. I think we end up colder than normal (but not drastically), with near average snowfall despite lower than normal precipitation. I expect one or two nasty cold snaps and 2-3 significant snowstorms. Furthermore, I would not be surprised to see several clipper like events with 1-3 inch type snows that are followed by wind and cold. As usual, I anticipate a January thaw that will be a welcome break for several days. If things go well, we may get a couple more mild periods deeper into February.

For what it's worth, that is where my mind is now. That said, with all the extreme weather we've witnessed recently, I'm ready for about anything, including the kitchen sink. You should be too. Roll weather...TS

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1. It’s Steeped In History

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5. You Don’t Have To Travel To The Mountains To Go Skiing

6. It’s A Great Place To Spend The Fourth Of July

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