WINTER STORM UPDATE, SNOW TOTALS

This is an intermediate update to introduce the latest snowfall projections from fresh model runs. These are not forecasts, they are raw model input that is used to prepare forecasts (guides if you will). I haven't noticed much change in amounts, but there continues to be a slight NW trend to the track of the storm. That likely means somewhat lower amounts in my SE counties. Especially SE of a line from Ft. Madison to Kewanee and east of Sterling. Otherwise, much of the area appears to have a good chance of seeing 6-10 inch accumulations. There may also be banding, where a narrow swath of snow could produce amounts up to 12 inches in some localized areas. Here's those fresh model runs.

The EURO

The GFS

The SREF short term ensemble members

The 3k NAM

The 12k NAM

The National blend of models (NBM)

The regional GEM

Below is the official NWS forecast for the region. The heavier totals have shifted from the southeast of the Quad Cities yesterday to about the Quad Cities northwest today.

The NWS model indicates a 1 in 10 chance of reaching these high-end amounts.

There's a 9 in 10 chance that these low-end amounts will be attained.

Currently, winter storm watches are out for all of my area. At some point, the NWS will bump these up to winter storm warnings across much of the region. That's already happened just to the west in pink. Western Kansas is under a blizzard warning.

That's the latest and greatest snowfall guidance. As you can see on the satellite, clouds are increasing to the west as the storm's energy makes the bend in Arizona.

Snow will begin in my area early Monday evening. Make your preparations now! Roll weather...TS

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