WINTER SEVERITY, WHERE WE STAND...

The winter season has significant societal impacts on us all ranging from our health and mortality to commerce, transportation, and even education. The question “How severe was this winter?” is a complex one without a simple answer. At the very least, the severity of a winter is related to the intensity and persistence of cold weather, the amount of snow, and the amount and persistence of snow on the ground. The Accumulated Winter Season Severity Index (AWSSI) was developed to objectively quantify and describe the relative severity of the winter season.

Here's where the index currently stands with more than half the winter still ahead of us. As you can see on the scale at left, so far the winter in my immediate area has been average to moderate. In other words, tolerable. That has not been the case to our NW where persistent cold and heavy snows through the northern Plains and upper Midwest have created extreme to severe conditions...not all that far away

Here's some additional information about the how and why the index is calibrated.

For purposes of comparison, here's the AWSSI value in the Quad Cities 52 days into the season vs. Bismarck, North Dakota below. The 156 index locally makes this winter a 2 compared to the 5 levels outlined on the index. The winter in Bismarck has been so extreme that the AWSSI there is the highest ever recorded in a winter at 945. Winter started early in North Dakota and has been unrelenting ever since.

Moline, IL.

Bismarck, N.D.

One to 3 feet of snow still blankets most of North Dakota with some of the heaviest depths from Devils Lake to Jamestown (28-32"). The water equivalent is as high as 6.5 inches. For the past 30 days, most of North Dakota's temperatures are been running 6 -12 degrees below normal, that's per day! Here are the state's reported snow depths as of January 6th

Outside of a cold snap the first half of November and the Arctic blast around Christmas, we've done well around here. Look at the start we are off to the first 6 days of January.

And, that winter severity index will continue to improve as the next 15 days remain mild. Here's the week 1 temperature departures on the EURO the 6-13th.

Week 2 is even warmer with departures such as this January 14-21st. Even North Dakota is above normal despite all the deep snow cover. Really impressive for what is typically the coldest time of the year. This will save us all some money on the old heating bills.

What's really remarkable about this pattern is that it will be occurring in the cold phases of the MJO. You can see the rotation through 8, 1, and 2 the last half of January.

Here's the temperature analogs for 8, 1, and 2. Cold across the board.

Very rarely have I seen an MJO rotation like this in January where we did not get into some healthy cold air. I did some digging around and only 2 times in recent history have I been able to find warm January readings with cold MJO cycles and similar sea surface temperatures, January 2017 and January 1998.

2017

1998

There's always exceptions to the rule and maybe 2023 is one of them. Since we haven't gotten into 8 yet maybe models will respond colder in a few days once that happens. It's on the table. But, at least for now, I sure don't see any threat of real cold air before January 21st at the earliest.

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THE WEEKEND

Our weekend certainly got off to a fine start Friday with some welcome sunshine and tolerable January conditions. Saturday looks decent as well with mostly sunny skies and highs in the mid to upper 30s.

SATURDAY NIGHT SNOW?

For several days a battle has been going on between the EURO and GFS regarding the potential of some light snow in my southern counties Saturday night. The threat is tied to a weak system that tries to brush extreme southern Iowa and WC Illinois with some snow showers. The EURO remains dry in all but my most southern counties near the Missouri border Saturday night. The GFS (as it has for several days), tries to amplify the system a bit more and brings accumulations north of I-80. Here's the comparison of the two different solutions.

The EURO

The GFS

I'm 99% sure the GFS is an outlier with its heavier totals. Moisture is very limited and will be a highly negative factor. Some light snow or flurries could perhaps reach the far south. with the worst case scenario a dusting near the Iowa border including places like Ft. Madison, Keokuk, and Monmouth (and frankly I doubt that).

Whatever happens down south Saturday night, Sunday should see the return of partly cloudy skies and slightly warmer temperatures with highs ranging from 34 north to 38 south. Seasonally mild weather prevails next week with little chance of rain or snow before Thursday.

Have a fantastic weekend everybody and roll weather...TS