WINTER SET TO STRIKE AGAIN
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THE FUTURE OF THE SITE DEPENDS ON YOU.
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IF IT'S NOT ONE THING, IT'S ANOTHER...
We finally got the snow to stop, and then the cold came in the back door and found a cozy home the past 3 days. While the worst of the chill has modified slightly the past 36 hours, it's still here and the snow is coming back, although it will be far more manageable than the last two storms.
Before I get to the snow, I came across this little nugget regarding the recent Arctic siege. I see that here in Dubuque, we managed to go 88 consecutive hours without the temperature climbing above zero, (that's from 6:20 pm Saturday the 13th to 9:53am Tuesday the 17th). That is the longest stretch at the Dubuque airport since records began in 1951. The previous streak was 84 hours, set back in 1996.
For winter as a whole, the record for days with highs zero or colder in Dubuque is 6 set in 1996. 1979 and 1970 both had 4. With plenty of winter to go, this year is tied for 4th and counting with 3.
The next order of business is today's clipper, which brings a fluffy snow back to the region late Thursday and especially Thursday night. You can see the energy on the satellite, digging into the northern Rockies.
At midday Thursday, the snow shield is already encroaching on western Iowa.
From there it sweeps E/SE, sending its lift and energy over the region. It's a fast mover, meaning only a 6-8 hour window for any meaningful snow. However, within that block of time, CAMS (convective allowing models) are painting 1/10th to nearly 2/10ths of an inch of QPF. Put that into snow production with 20:1 ratios, and a general 2-4 inch snow band would result. Interestingly, the deterministic EURO and GFS remain the lowest on QPF and suggest amounts more in the 2-3 inch category. I'm liking a fluffy 2-3 inch snow for the majority of my area. If the CAMS are correct, it's possible some 4" totals could result from banding where forcing is maximized.
The NWS has issued a winter weather advisory for the bulk of my area from 3:00pm Thursday to 9:00am Friday. Following that, a wind chill advisory goes into effect until noon Friday.
The snow itself arrives later Thursday afternoon and quickly overspreads the region by evening before departing by daybreak Friday. Here's what guidance is suggesting for snow totals from this event. Keep in mind, these are not forecasts, just the raw data that is used to create forecasts.
The GFS
The EURO
The HRRR
The 3k NAM
The 12k NAM
The 10k GEM
Additionally, once the clipper passes, Arctic air again makes a surge into the region. This ratchets up the pressure gradient, producing NW winds of 25-35 mph by Friday morning. With fresh powder on top of our deep snow pack, some blowing snow is likely, especially in the open country. The multiple hazards of snow, wind, and bitter cold as mentioned, has already caused the NWS to issue a winter weather advisory for the counties in blue Thursday night. Travel is likely to become difficult in open terrain.
Here's what the HRRR shows for lows Friday morning. Even worse, readings hold pretty much steady all day long.
With the expected winds and bitter cold air, wind chills Friday will be brutal again, potentially as cold as 30 below!
I am happy to report the Arctic surge, while wicked, is expected to be brief. The upper air pattern over North America undergoes a radical realignment Monday that turns the upper air winds to the southwest. That means no more Arctic air for the remainder of January.
Take a peak at these temperature departures on the GFS January 26th. That's a remarkable reversal!
One thing we definitely don't want is a major storm to come flying out of the southwest, dump a bunch of rain, and send temperatures into the 40s and 50s next week. With the moisture released from melting snows, ice jams, and run-off from piles of snow blocking storm drains, next week needs to be watched. So far, I'm not seeing strong evidence of such dramatic scenarios, but the way this year has gone, I'm counting nothing out.
Well, keep the shovels handy and the parka close by, we'll need them both the next 48 hours! Roll weather...TS
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