WINTER IS WAKING UP...

While the details are not fully resolved, there are strong signals that a significant winter weather pattern is set to emerge in approximately a week. Confidence is growing in that parts of the Midwest could see significant snow (perhaps more than one system) that is followed by Arctic cold and low wind chills. This all begins around January 9th and extends through trough January 21st. I've been eyeing this potential for some time by way of teleconnections, the Madden Julien Oscillation, and a stratosphere warming near the North Pole. Now the deterministic models are falling in line with the trends. The screaming message is the party is likely to end for our mild winter, especially after most of us saw December temperatures 9–10 degrees above normal. Cedar Rapids and Burlington had their 2nd warmest December's on record.

Take a look at this, it's the EURO control 500mb height anomalies for January 14th. That is a cold looking pattern. If indeed the EURO has the right idea, we are headed for some old-fashioned January cold.

I do like the idea of a colder pattern after January 10th with the EURO showing the mean of the Arctic Oscillation significantly negative January 9th-16th.

That corresponds with a weakening of the Polar Vortex at northern latitudes. A weaker vortex means slower westerlies that allow Arctic cold to be displaced further south into the mid-latitudes.

The EURO extended weeklies show the negative AO into mid-February. That implies much of the next 6 weeks could be below normal. The wild card is the El Niño and how it interacts with the AO. That relationship is volatile and difficult to ascertain with limited analogs to this year's set-up.

The negative AO and its impact.

Another teleconnection that is in favor of storminess is the NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation). It is shown going strongly negative, and I anticipate a significant storm to form around January 9-10th.

The blocking in Greenland that causes the negative NAO forces the storm track into a position where cold air should be deep enough to bring snow systems into the central and eastern U.S.

You can also see the trend for the -AO to be cold compared to the +phase

The Climate Prediction Center put this out Monday indicating a moderate risk of heavy snow for much of eastern Iowa, NE Missouri, N. Illinois, and SE Wisconsin between the 9th-11th.

All the major models are showing a snowstorm of significant proportions around January 9th. The GFS depicts a 975mb surface low passing just SE of Chicago the evening of January 9th. Wind and heavy snow is shown to the NW.

The latest data suggests the worst of the storm would be just east of my area if the 500mb low tracks where it is shown below over central Indiana. A small shift of 200 miles NW would put my area in the heart of it.

Since the event is about a week away, models are still working to get a hold on track and intensity. Some changes are likely, but at least for now, some part of the central Midwest is in line for a heavy snow event. We shall see where things stand in my next post. That said, my thinking is after a quiet week ahead, things should get active and potentially unpleasant in less than 7 days. Even if we miss the worst of the snow, much colder air is on the table for mid-January. Stay tuned and roll weather...TS

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Carolyn