WINTER IS FAR FROM DONE...
A MESSAGE FROM TSWAILS
Dear weather friends, I'm asking for your help to raise funds for the time I invest in this site and its operational costs. So far it's been a struggle and donations are 60 percent less than at this point last year. I realize times are tough, and we are all feeling the pinch. That's a big reason why this is a no pay site. Many of you are daily visitors and make financial or personal decisions based on the information presented. The majority of you appreciate the honesty, accuracy, and knowledge that you gain. If you fall into any of those categories, I ask that you make a $20 dollar investment in what I feel is a unique and reliable product. That way, we can keep things rolling as they have for more than 12 years. The future is in your hands, and I hugely appreciate the generosity of those who have contributed. So again, if you find value in the site and see the effort that's put into it, please consider a minimal donation to support TSwails today. Thanks for your time and loyalty, TS
HOW TO END A SNOW DROUGHT
If you read my last post, https://www.tswails.com/single-post/in-like-a-lamb-baaa you will see how I used teleconnections to visualize a pattern that that has what I feel is "good potential" to bring cold and even snow back into the pattern in roughly 10 days.
If you are wondering, a "teleconnection" in weather refers to a significant relationship or link between weather phenomena occurring in locations that are geographically far away, meaning that weather patterns in one part of the world can influence conditions far away, that can extend over thousands of miles; essentially, it's a large-scale atmospheric pattern that connects weather anomalies across vast parts of the globe, impacting temperature, rainfall, and storm tracks in those regions.Â
Key points about teleconnections:
Large-scale patterns:
Teleconnections involve large-scale atmospheric patterns such as changes in pressure and circulation anomalies that extend over large geographical areas.Â
Jet stream influence:
These patterns are often linked to variations in the jet stream, which can significantly impact weather patterns across continents.Â
Example: ENSO:
One of the most well-known teleconnections is the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), where changes in ocean temperatures in the Pacific Ocean can influence weather patterns globally. There are many more mentioned in my previous post.
Predicting weather:
Understanding teleconnections helps us predict long-range weather patterns and potential impacts on different regions, even before operational models see them. They are generally analog based. In other words, when we see specific patterns evolving, we look at the weather that eventually follows. These analogs have known correlations to temperatures and precipitation in a broad sense.
Yesterday, and even today, there is overwhelming evidence that a colder pattern is evolving for mid-February that could very well bring some snow, something that's been very scarce this year. Today's operational EURO was very bullish on the idea. It's still too early to get into details or say with certainty how things play out at this distance. However, trends are important in that they can confirm what the teleconnections are implying.
For example, look at these temperature departures on the operational EURO February 16th. Talk about a serious trend towards cold! Some of the departures in central Illinois are 47 degrees below normal!
Snowfall was also extreme. At a 10:1 ratio, it looked like this on the same run.
However, taking into consideration the cold air it was falling in, the higher ratios of the Kuchera method doubles those amounts.
I absolutely want to stress, there is still significant uncertainty in both the amount of cold and snow that eventually visits. This is a very extreme run, and no two models are alike. I expect the next run will be far less harsh in both regards. However, even if you cut the cold and snow in half, you still have some impactful winter weather.
So, the point here is to say teleconnections and modeling is trying to tell us something is coming. The devil is in the details yet to come.
Meantime, Sunday we enjoy 50s. Go figure.... Roll weather and if you can spare a donation, I will see to it that it's money well spent....TS
