WINTER CHECKING IN...
Winter took a week off over the Christmas break, but the resounding message among the weather models is that it's back and will bring the whole family, wind, cold, and some light snow in the coming two weeks. Make your plans accordingly.
The lead system that is opening the door for the return is passing to the southeast early Tuesday, bringing a transition from rain to snow, especially in my central and southern counties. Amounts will not be excessive, an inch or less if any in most areas. The most bullish and probably least likely is the HRRR, which shows some snow totals pushing 2 inches in EC Iowa.
The HRRR
The EURO has been fairly consistent on amounts similar to this the past 2 days, yet I think it is still a bit on the high side.
The 3k NAM shows very little in the way of snow and could be right based on trends so far, late Monday night. A tough call being a change from rain to snow is involved. If the timing is off, so are the amounts.
Even if there are minor accumulations, recent warmth and highs slightly above freezing should keep roads slushy at worst, and I don't expect much in the way of travel issues. Bridges and overpasses are one area to watch for slick spots that can more readily develop. Here's what the 3k NAM indicates for highs Tuesday.
Any mixed precipitation ends in the late morning Tuesday and by New Year's Eve right into New Year's Day, dry conditions are assured. Temperature Tuesday evening for all you revelers should be crisp Tuesday evening in the mid to upper 20 through midnight. I don't look for much rise on Wednesday, with readings near to slightly below freezing to kick off 2025.
Thursday, a compact short wave is shown diving southeast, potentially initiating a narrowband of fast moving light snow. This will be much fluffier with higher snow ratios, and an inch or two is shown on the EURO. It appears the NE half of my area will escape the snow, which could cause some slick travel in the SW.
High temperatures Thursday remain in the mid to upper 20s as colder air begins to gain traction. While still dry, readings Friday and Saturday are below normal, in the upper teens to lower 20s.
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A CLOSE CALL WITH SNOW FOLLOWED BY ARCTIC AIR...
Later Saturday, the focus turns to the Texas Panhandle, where low pressure is shown organizing. Solutions are still loose, but the general idea is the storm will make a run towards the southern tip of Illinois late Sunday or Sunday night. The area will be soundly in the cold sector and there will be no issues with precipitation type as snow will be the dominate form this far north.
What has become a concern is how amplified the system will be. Recent runs are showing less phasing, which restricts intensity until that process occurs further east. If indeed that's the case, the main thrust of the storm is very likely to be further south in Missouri and central Illinois. It appears more and more this is becoming the favored solution
As it stands now, at least light snow is expected to develop Sunday evening in the far south and last into Monday morning before ending. Accumulations are certainly on the table and with snow ratios of at least 15:1, it will be powdery and fluffy. An inch maybe two is possible in the far south, with the higher amounts indicated near the Missouri border. The north may end up with little more than clouds and a few flurries with a weaker system and the depth of the cold air in place. Heavier snows are more likely further south, closer to the surface low. The EURO indicates a 50-60 percent maximum chance of 3 or more inches of snow south of I-80. That's of course subject to change with any further changes in track.
Once this event is past, a deep full latitude NW flow is established aloft. A series of potential clippers will ride southeast from time to time through mid-January. Not only will these be capable of producing light snow events, they will serve to reinforce and actually deepen the polar air entering the pattern. By January 14th the mean 500mb jet stream looks like this. That's not conducive to moisture or storms, but it certainly opens the door wide to some mighty fresh Arctic air.
January 12th, the GFS is depicting temperatures that are 28–33 degrees below average.
That yields lows of -7 to -13, potentially warmer if snow cover is less than currently anticipated.
Wind chills of 30 below are still showing up. In fact
While snow may be low confidence at this point, cold air is not. It is coming, it's just a matter of how bitter it gets. More to come as the set-up is revealed. Until then, roll weather...TS
