WINNING THE LOTTERY...

Temperatures are off to another chilly start Thursday with areas of frost again widespread. Wednesday morning the worst of the chill was just to our NW where some places in the NW half of Iowa dipped into the upper 20s. Mason City was one of the colder spots with their low of 27. Sheldon and Spencer also reached that level. In my area, Independence and Lowden both touched the freezing mark at 32.

Much like Wednesday morning, after a chilly start a full day of sunshine promises to make the rest of Thursday bright and pleasantly cool with highs cresting in the low 60s. Even better, the great weather continues into the coming weekend with more sunshine and a warming trend. It all adds up to a fantastic start to October which of course arrives Saturday. Here's the EURO meteogram into early next week. Sunny mild days and cool nights, that's what early October is all about.

This benign and generally seasonal weather pattern is likely to continue unabated right on through the next 10 days. Here's what the EURO shows for 10 day precipitation.

Temperatures over that same 10 day period should be just a bit below the norms. That should keep us mainly in the upper 60s to low 70s which is a fantastic place to be. In fact, it's like winning the October weather lottery!

You can also see those 10 day temperatures correlate closely to phase 5 of the Madden Julien Oscillation which is where the EURO indicates the MJO going the next week or so. Phase 5 looks like this during the month of October

If you project even further into the future with the MJO you will note that by October 8th it is shown cycling into phase 6. That would signal a reversal in our temperatures as phase 6 correlates to above normal readings over the Plains and central Midwest.

Sure enough the EURO ensemble indicates the warm-up in the day 10-15 day period ending October 13th right where the temperature analogs depict it.

The EURO at 500mb also shows a strong west coast trough that would act as the pump to initiate the warming trend.

That is a significant pattern change at 500mb from where things currently stand. Take a look below.

Overall, I would say there is above average confidence that temperatures the second week of October will average higher than normal. The Climate Prediction Center also agrees showing the warmth extending across much of the nation October 6th-12th.

I also think there is high confidence precipitation remains well below normal the next couple of weeks. That's a problem for the NW third of my area which has seen little in the way of rain this September. Thursday will be the 11th consecutive day with no measurable rain at my place in Dubuque. Over the past 18 days only .03 has fallen with nothing in site for at least a week. Here's the 2 week rainfall departures on the EURO and GFS. The central U.S. is basically shut down when it comes to rain.

The EURO

The GFS

Not surprisingly, here's what CPC is showing in its precipitation outlook October 6th-12th.

Well, that's the tale of the tape and I'll call it a wrap. Enjoy the bright and beautiful day ahead. Roll weather...TS