WINDY AND COLD, BUT NOT FOR LONG
- terryswails1
- 1 hour ago
- 2 min read
Howdy everyone! What a brutal start to April in the Midwest. Monday will feature some windy and chilly conditions with widespread highs barely reaching the mid-40s. Wind gusts will top around 30-35mph. At least it will be a sunny afternoon!
As the wind calms Monday night, the temperatures will plummet. Tuesday morning will have temperatures in the low/mid 20s for a large portion of the region.
With these temperatures in the 20s, Tuesday morning's low will be 10-15° below normal for this time of year, however there are some changes brewing, as visible well off to the west. We will have some reward for the short-term unpleasantness.
A fairly weak storm system remains likely midweek with some rather limited moisture. Precipitation likely kicks off Wednesday morning and scattered showers will persist through the evening. Total precipitation will likely be less than a quarter of an inch. There might be enough cold air still in place to start Wednesday to warrant some wintry mixed precipitation, especially in northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin, but impacts are negligible.
Thursday begins a nice warming trend through the week with highs slowly rising through the 50s and into the 60s as winds switch from the south and southwest. We will likely add some 70s to the board on Saturday for some, especially by Sunday, all fueled by a breezy south wind.
Saturday we could see some elevated fire danger in the region as well with breezy conditions and humidity levels potentially in the 30% range. We did have some beneficial rainfall early last week which will help, but these trends will need to be watched very closely!
As we head deeper through April the overall pattern will likely remain fairly calm. Strong ridging over the Rockies will usher in dry air from the northwest over the Midwest keeping storm systems in check, especially through about April 15.
Analogs are heavily favoring below-normal precipitation in them middle of April for a significant portion of the central US. This is much needed for areas experiencing record flooding after a significant series of severe weather across the Ohio River Valley and the southern half of the Mississippi River Valley.
Late in April, after April 15, there are some increasing signals in a more active weather pattern. Analogs are hinting at above-normal precipitation for the Midwest. This particular model is focused on the April 17-20 time frame.
In that same window, chances of at least 1" of rain are moving into the 20-30% range for much of the central US. Given the time of year this may lead to an increase in severe weather chances as well, but those details are a long way off for now!
-Meteorologist Nick Stewart
