WHEREFORE ART THOU RAIN...
For a time in early August the rain machine was up and running across the region. In some places, there was actually too much of a good thing with excessive rains of 3-6 inches producing flash flooding. Then we hit the switch and that was the end of it. Now we're on a 15 day run with no measurable rain across the majority of the area.
Unfortunately, outside of a few sprinkles early Tuesday, rain prospects are looking rather limited the next two weeks. Here's the rainfall departures for the next 16 days on the GFS ending September 13th. Clearly high pressure is dominating a large part of the nation east of the Rockies.
The GFS shows this for total rain the next 10 days. That won't even settle the dust.
CPC shows the extent of the dry weather over the central U.S. in its 6-10 day precipitation outlook.
If nothing else, temperatures are going to be tolerable the remainder of the week. Highs Tuesday will again be in the low to mid 80s before another surface high builds over the upper Midwest. That turns winds in from the east Wednesday and Thursday dropping highs into the 70s. With dew points in the upper 40s to mid 50s, some very pleasant weather is on the way.
LATE SEASON HEAT ON THE BACK BURNER...
Friday temperatures inch back over 80 and then we begin another strong warming trend that takes us through the holiday weekend. While this stretch of heat is not likely to be as sweltering as last weeks, highs well into the 90s are on the table as early as Sunday. CPC even has the region highlighted for excessive heat September 5th-7th.
Here's the 8-14 day temperature outlook for the period September 5-11th
By then a fresh heat dome has taken shape over the central U.S. to create this new round of warmth. This is what it looks like at 500mb.
These are the associated temperature departures on the GFS Wednesday September 6th.
The EURO is not that extreme and is far more reasonable. However, it too is hot showing highs labor day in the mid to upper 90s. That's a very toasty day for September 4th.
One aspect that is very different with this round of heat compared to last weeks, is much lower dew points. This time around dew points should be more in the low to perhaps mid 60s (last week we were battling upper 70s to low 80s). That will eliminate the excessive heat potential with heat index values near or even a bit lower than the actual readings on the thermometer.
Another major national weather story is tropical storm Idalia which is expected to strike NW Florida as a major category 3 hurricane with winds of 110 to 120 mph Wednesday morning. A hurricane warning is in effect for much of the coastal areas of NW Florida where evacuations have been ordered. Torrential rains and a dangerous storm surge are anticipated along with hurricane force winds. With record to near record sea surface temperatures in the NE Gulf, rapid intensification of the storm is likely Tuesday, especially with favorable upper air conditions in place.
That's where things stand on a late August night. Hard to believe September is on the door step. Roll weather...TS
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