WELCOME TO THE JUNGLE...
Welcome to the jungle baby! Extremely intense heat is destined to boil the area the next two days as the core of the heat dome sets up shop over the central Midwest. If you've ever wondered what the tropical jungle of the rain forest is like, this is it....and you won't have to leave your backyard to find out!
Tuesday, the heart of the heat was just to the west with a weak back door front draped southeast across Iowa and central Illinois. While it was no picnic here with heat index values of 102-108, things were smoking hot southwest of the boundary. Look at some of the heat index values reported in the SW half of Iowa. Shenandoah during the 4:00pm observation was at 123 degrees. Their actual high was 97 with a max dew point of 84.
Some of the automated plots which are quite unreliable, are worth taking a look at simply because they are so off the charts due to inflated dew points. Atlantic, Iowa reported 95 over 93, which produced a heat index of 153. Rest assured that dew point of 93 was at least 10 degrees too high and that 153 occurred only in fantasyland. That said, legitimate dew points of 80+ were pooled up over much of the SW half of Iowa making 115-120 heat index values a reality there.
Wednesda, weather of that caliber is expected to take a swing at my area as it gets a nudge east. Below you can see the pattern at 500mb that is driving the boat when it comes to this exceptional late season heat wave.
The heat dome is so extensive that "excessive" heat warnings are out from Minnesota to the Gulf of Mexico.
Thursday, at 850mb (5,000 ft. up), temperatures are maxed out over my area nearly 14 degrees C. above normal.
Actual 850 temperatures on the EURO are pegged at 27-28 C. (roughly 82 degrees) a mile up. That is extremely warm for that level and that's the hot air aloft that is CAPPING the atmosphere and restricting any thunderstorms.
That EML (capping mid-level inversion) is also trapping low level moisture leading to the high dew points. The combination of heat and humidity will lead to some very "mean" conditions through Thursday. In fact, record highs are a possibility up near 100 degrees. Here's the established records that could be challenged.
The NWS put this graphic out depicting the last time highs of 100 or more were achieved at at number of reporting stations. Most were experienced 10 to 11 years ago.
Again, the rare aspect of the weather Wednesday will be such high heat with the added element of dew points of 78-82 degrees. It's very possible some locations will see the heat index touch 120 degrees with 115 common. Here's what the hi-res 3k NAM indicates.
Make no mistake, Wednesday's conditions need to be respected! Here's some preventative actions to keep in mind with this extreme situation from the NWS.
By Thursday night we'll all be begging for a break and the end will be in sight thanks to a cold front which will slowly but surely penetrate the region. Friday morning the front should be near or south of I-80 and will gradually head for the Missouri border by evening. Temperatures will dip into the upper 80s across the north while the south holds in the low to perhaps mid 90s. Still a rather toasty day but better than Thursday.
Finally, a stronger short wave carves out a nice NW flow in the jet and much cooler and drier air descends on the Midwest Saturday and Sunday. Highs will go from 80-85 Saturday to 77-82 Sunday. Humidity takes a big hit too, especially Sunday when dew points will be back in the low to mid 50s.
As for rain, there is a slight chance the front could produce a few showers and storms Thursday night in the north and Friday across the south. However, with weak forcing and strong capping aloft, I would not hold your breath regarding rain prospects. Chances are most of us will see little if any but at least the heat wave ends. Most likely, it will be at least 9-10 months before we see anything this warm again. For now, welcome to the jungle! Roll weather and stay cool...TS
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