WEEKEND SNOW UPDATE
CLOSER TO MY SUPPORT GOAL
MY FUND RAISER CONTINUES....
Many of you are daily visitors and make financial or personal decisions based on the information presented. The majority of you appreciate the honesty, accuracy, and knowledge that you gain. If you fall into any of those categories, I ask that you make a $20 dollar investment in what I feel is a unique and reliable product. I'm still about $2,860 from my goal. The future is in your hands, and I hugely appreciate the generosity of those who have contributed. If you find value in the site and see the effort that's put into it, please consider a minimal donation. T. Swails
HAPPY VALENTINES DAY...
A very complex, multifaceted storm is getting set to move into the region in two pieces the next 24 hours. Wave one is more straight forward, arriving late Friday afternoon and evening, exerting its greatest impacts on my northern counties where 1-3 inches of snow is possible. An inch or less is expected along and south of I-80. Impacts across the south, especially south of HWY 34 should be less.
After a break in precipitation later this evening in the north, the primary energy arrives later Saturday, bringing with it a renewed chance of snow. Some mixed freezing rain or sleet is also possible before a change to snow south of I-80. A winter weather advisory has been posted along and northwest of a line extending from the Quad Cities to Freeport. Between the two systems, 2 to 5, (perhaps 6) inches of snow is possible in or near the advisory, mainly north of Interstate 80.
The initial phase of snow this afternoon is due to an intense burst of warm air advection. Lift is maximized on the nose of a 60kt jet. A relatively short (3-5 hour) burst of locally heavy snow is possible. It will be accompanied by gusty SE winds of 25-30 that are likely to result in blowing and drifting snow, especially in the open country. Travel will become difficult across the north later today and last through the evening commute, especially north of HWY 30.
ROUND 2 LOW CONFIDENCE
As the primary trough and its associated energy enters the region Saturday, a low pressure center takes shape to the southeast that intensifies and heads into the Ohio Valley Sunday. Modeling remains inconsistent on how moisture and forcing evolves, with some of the high-resolution convective allowing models, such as the HRRR and WRF, indicating a robust band of frontogenetic forcing in some part of the north. It would have the potential to lay down a narrow band of heavier snow somewhere in north of HWY 30. That's a wild card.
Another issue is the deformation band that forms to the NW of the developing cyclone, shown passing through SE Indiana. This is a feature to watch for another nice band of snow. Moisture does not really get wrapped effectively into the system until it's east of my region, limiting its potential to produce heavy snow. That said, occasional light snow is expected as the deformation band forms and gradually sinks southeast. It has the potential to produce an additional 1–3 inches of snow in my northern and central counties, perhaps an inch or so south. That gets us to the 2-6 inch level for accumulations, highest north, lowest south. In fact, the far south (near and south of HWY 34) may keep totals closer to an inch.
This second wave is again low confidence, with the storm just maturing and coming together about the energy is passing by. If it blossoms sooner (not likely), that could up accumulations. If it's even later than shown, that could lower totals Saturday, which could bust this part of the forecast. This is a tough one.
Anyway, for the two potential waves of snow, this is what models are suggesting for snow accumulations. As you can see there is a lot of variance and much uncertainty Saturday for this late in the game.
The HRRR
The EURO
The GFS
The 10K GEM
The 3k NAM
The NBM (National Blend of Models)
Snow is advancing into my western counties now on its way northeast.
That's the best I can do until I see additional runs and trends later today. I like the idea all told of 2-5 near HWY 20, 1-3 from I-80 to HWY 30, 1-2 I-80 south, (lightest south of HWY 34). That's what I have for now. Roll weather, and if you can spare a donation, I will see to it that it's money well spent....TS
Comments