UNSETTLED, AGAIN...

Well, here we are on April 30th, the last day of the month. With May knocking on the door, I feel it is safe to say there will be no more snow the remainder of this season (I'm sticking my neck out). In hindsight, there never really was much snow. In the Quad Cities at the Moline Airport, the winter total will end up at 8.2 inches. Many years, more than that has fallen in a single day. That will make it the least snowy winter on record, besting the previous mark of 9.9 inches set in the winter of 1936-37. Dubuque, with a total of 17.7" had its second least snowy winter behind 1967-68 when only 15 inches fell. These are the seasonal snow totals through Tuesday.

Below, you can see the departures around the majority of my area were in the range of 15–25 inches. In some spots, snowfall was less than 25% of normal! Moline typically sees 35.8 inches and Dubuque 42.3. My neighbor plowed me out once, otherwise I only shoveled 2 times, one for 2 inches and the other 3. The rest were nickel and dime amounts that I let melt in short order.

This chart depicts the seasonal snow accumulations around the nation. There were places in Louisiana (New Orleans 10.0") and the Florida Panhandle (Pensacola 8.9"), that had more snow than many of my southern cities. For example, Keokuk had just 5.1 inches. La Crosse, Wisconsin had its first January ever (going back to 1893) where there was no measurable snow pack on any given day.

Confirming what we all know, the Winter Weather Severity Index shows that with an accumulated score of 420, Moline ended up in the mild category for winter as a whole. That's well over a thousand points lower than their all-time highest "worst winter" ranking. I'm assuming most of you are grateful.

RAIN DROPS RETURNING...

For the next 5, hopefully 6 months, rain will be the precipitation of choice, and we won't have to wait long for the next batch. You can see a southern stream disturbance in Oklahoma getting set to eject out of a trough lifting northeast. It's this energy that provides the forcing for showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms late Wednesday.

Tuesday night, clouds were already advancing on the region from the southwest. These will be on the increase Wednesday, with light rain entering my counties near and south of I-80 by afternoon My northern counties will likely not get into the showers until late afternoon and the far north might not see them until early evening.

There is a nice return flow of moisture Wednesday night and that along with a surface low tracking across Missouri that should produce the majority of the rain then. You can see water vapor of an inch or more into Wisconsin.

The slow movement of the rain may keep showers going into the morning hours Thursday before rain dissipates in the east during the early afternoon. The track of the low would favor the heavier rains over the southeast half of my area, especially from the Quad Cities south and east. Models are not in full agreement on amounts or placement yet, with some keeping the heavier amounts just southeast of my region. My concern is that convection further to the south robs my area of moisture, keeping rain totals lower than shown. That is certainly on the table, and models are just now sensing that possibility. Anyway, here's the latest trends for rainfall among models.

The EURO

The GFS

The 12k NAM

The 3k NAM

The HRRR

Hot on the heels of the first system, a secondary disturbance digs southeast across the area Friday. After a dry Thursday night, it's likely to bring additional shower chances Friday afternoon and evening. Amounts should be light, generally 1–2 tenths of an inch, maybe less in spots.

Needless to say, we are entering a 3-day period of unsettled weather that will feature plenty of clouds and some periods of precipitation. This will have an impact on daytime heating, and I look for below normal temperatures to start the merry month of May. Over the next 5 days, the GFS has temperature departures that look like this. That should keep highs confined to the range of 60-65, compared to the normals that are more in the range of 65-70.

Heading into the weekend, high pressure is back in the saddle, bringing pleasantly cool and dry conditions to the region. Depending on how it unfolds, a blocking pattern is established with troughs over the west and east that could allow up to a week of dry weather once it arrives Saturday. These are the precipitation departures for the 7-day period May 4-11th. Not much happening there.

With that, I will call it a post and wish you all the happiest of hump days. Roll weather...TS