UMBRELLA'S IN JANUARY
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YOU DON'T HAVE TO SHOVEL IT...
After another banner day, the window is closing on our beautiful winter weather. A storm is getting set to eject from the southwest. Clouds will rapidly thicken Thursday, with showers spreading into the south by afternoon that gradually overspread the remainder of the region Thursday night. A secondary bout of heavier, more steady rain is anticipated later Thursday night and Friday morning when a deformation band pivots in around the primary energy. The simulated radar on the 3k NAM looks like this around 9:00am Friday morning.
A couple of issues remain unresolved but at least with regard to snow, (as I expected) models have really backed off on that potential with limited cold air aloft as well as at the surface. This looks like a rain system with only a slight chance of a brief period of light snow or mixed rain and snow at the tail end of the event. Here's what models are suggesting for snow totals. What little (if any) is shown falling north of the Quad Cities and I-80.
The EURO
The GFS
The 3k NAM
A bigger, more important question is how far the rain shield extends into my northern counties. The EURO (as I pointed out yesterday) has enough dry air entrained to keep most of its precipitation along and south of HWY 30. The GFS and 3k NAM are 35–40 miles further north. That makes a big difference in amounts across my northern tier of counties. For example, in Dubuque the EURO shows nothing (0.0"), the GFS .21", and the 3k NAM .44". The heavier amounts seem to be concentrated more in my central and southern counties surrounding I-80, if trends hold. Personally, I prefer the drier look of the EURO in my northern counties. Take a look at what guidance indicates.
The EURO
The GFS
The 3k NAM
Incidentally, if Dubuque is bypassed by the rain, 2025 would become the driest January on record with just .08 inches of precipitation, all of which came in one day, the 22nd. The current record is .11 inches, set in 1925.
Once the system has its way and departs Friday, precipitation chances look minimal through next Tuesday. A Minnesota based clipper will bring an outside chance of a shower late Saturday night in the far north near HWY 20. Otherwise, the clipper serves to send another surge of very mild air into the region Sunday, with highs back in the 50s. Here's what the EURO is offering.
For perspective, that yields highs that are 23-26 degrees above the long term averages. Crazy numbers.
All things considered, temperatures are shown remaining well above normal through the 6th of February. In fact, there are hints that readings could get close to 60 February 5th and 6th, especially in my southern counties. The EURO meteogram indicates highs like this the next 10 days in the Quad Cities.
lf you're looking for signs of spring, get a load of these highs the EURO shows February 5th. Highs in the low 70s are shown as far north as Quincy, Illinois. 75 is indicated in Columbia. It's not that warm here, but you can almost reach out and touch it.
A notable cool-down is shown on the EURO around the 11th which might be attributed to the fact the MJO is exiting the mild phases of 4, 5, and 6 which we will be coming out of at that time. We are then shown getting into 8 by mid-February, which is a colder signal, although it's not highly amplified and may be brief in duration.
Both the GFS and EURO are indicating a negative PNA continuing through the first 2 weeks of February, which implies a western trough and a strong baroclinic driven storm track across the nation's mid-section. That should support an active pattern and periodic precipitation chances. The EURO day 15 shows a 500mb loading pattern that would be ripe for active weather. It's a long way out, but the blocking over the top gives me hope the cold air can push and keep us in the game for snow. One thing to watch is if the energy, which is nicely phased as currently shown, decides to split. That has happened many times this year, leaving white gold lovers locally high and dry. Maybe this time the negative PNA as opposed to the positive phase of the past 2 months will pay off. Something I can dream about tonight.
Well, that's going to do it for tonight. Dig out the umbrella, raindrops are coming for most areas aside from the far north. Roll weather...TS
FOR REAL...
Last but not least, I spend an immense amount of time preparing these posts (ask my wife). I enjoy doing it. However, I have real operational costs and a daughter who wants to go to Wisconsin and get her masters. I'm on a fixed income and if I can not get the donations I need from this fund-raiser, I've got to find a paying job. That means the site goes, or is not going to be as in depth and reliable as it currently is. If you like what you see and rely on the content, please consider a donation. Seriously, I'm sad to say the future depends on you. Thanks for your consideration and support over all the years! Roll weather...TS
