top of page
thumbnail_1 ts baner, future in your hands.png

TWICE IN A WEEK, IT'S SNOW JOKE

CLOSER TO MY SUPPORT GOAL

THANKS FOR CHOOSING TSWAILS
THANKS FOR CHOOSING TSWAILS

MY FUND RAISER CONTINUES....

Many of you are daily visitors and make financial or personal decisions based on the information presented. The majority of you appreciate the honesty, accuracy, and knowledge that you gain. If you fall into any of those categories, I ask that you make a $20 dollar investment in what I feel is a unique and reliable product. I'm still about $3,000 from my goal. The future is in your hands, and I hugely appreciate the generosity of those who have contributed. If you find value in the site and see the effort that's put into it, please consider a minimal donation. T. Swails


HAPPY VALENTINES DAY...

Hopefully you've got love in your heart as well as your life!. You will need it to keep warm today. Even cupid is wearing his patented red long johns this morning after overnight lows below zero where snow cover exists. One factor contributing to the cold we haven't had to deal with this year is a fresh and significant snow cover in my western and northern counties. Here are the totals from Wednesday's storm. You can see in yellows the 75-mile wide corridor where 6–10 inches of snow was common from SC into EC Iowa.

Here's another perspective. Many places (outside my southeast counties) had more snow in the storm than had fallen all winter long.

Below, you can see snow on the ground Thursday from St Louis northwest to the Canadian border.

TWICE IN A WEEK, IT'S "SNOW" JOKE...

This next image shows a two pronged storm that will bring additional snow to the Midwest starting late Friday and in some areas Saturday as well. There is plenty of vorticity in that swirl over northern California. The question is, how does it evolve as it translates east across the nation's mid-section?

As it stands now, the first round of snow returns by late Friday afternoon and evening. The second wave is still not being resolved consistently by modeling. Phasing appears to be the issue (how energy is bundled) and that is a problematic issue that needs to be resolved asap. I am seeing signs that more phasing is possible which could make for a stronger system. So far, the EURO has not shown much of that tendency.


First things first, as the system ejects from the Plains, an initial shortwave will drive warm advection snow that arrives late in the day and into the evening Friday. The strongest, most long-lasting forcing appears to be north of I-80, with most models keeping snowfall of more than an inch confined to the north half of my area. Snow totals vary considerably depending on various model solutions. A reasonable middle ground solution would be amounts of an inch or so along I-80 to as much as 3 inches in the far north near HWY 20. The NWS has issued a winter weather advisory for snow from 3:00pm Friday to 3:00am Friday night.


Further south, some light snow or even some sort of brief mix is anticipated, but accumulations south of I-80 appear minimal (under an inch) and lighter the further south you go towards the Missouri border. With the warm advection lifting north by midnight, precipitation in all areas will diminish and likely end, aside from some flurries or pockets of freezing drizzle. That will be it for round 1.


ROUND TWO

The second part of the system is very low confidence, owing to the fact phasing comes into play. The GFS has more of it and develops a classic looking deformation band with the potential for heavier accumulating snow in my central and northern counties. The HRRR, a high-res convective allowing model, only run out to 48 hours, came in with a closed 850mb circulation. That's a very interesting development. It's quite similar to what was evident with Wednesday's event. That needs to be closely watched.

You can see why when you look at the HRRR's surface depiction Saturday evening, showing an organized deepening low approaching Indiana.

The snow totals on the HRRR look like this. I'm not sure if this is a rogue run or the beginning of a trend. Very hot stuff.

The GFS is not quite as good but still impactful.

Between Friday night's snow and what occurs Saturday, the GFS has this for amounts. A snowy run for the north. I just can't buy into that yet.

The EURO remains less phased, leading to a weaker snow event Saturday. However, I will say it has trended a bit further NW and backs a bit more snow into parts of EC Iowa and northern Illinois.

The 10K GEM for both rounds of snow indicates 4–6 inches areawide.

Based on everything I've seen, the EURO is the odd man out with its less aggressive solution. 24–48 hours from the event, that is rare, and it's tough for me to buck the "king". It leaves a great deal of doubt as to how Saturday evolves. I can't really get into it much deeper at this point, other to say things are evolving tonight as models struggle to define the energy and the amount of phasing that ultimately takes place. I think the bottom line for now is there is going to be some snow this weekend, but after the Friday night episode, it's tough to say where and how much Saturday. Quite an interesting scenario.


My plan is to let the new guidance arrive on Friday morning, assess it, hopefully find some solid trends and consistency, and then assign some numbers to Saturday's snow in a midday update.


Lastly, I have not talked much about the cold that's coming this week due to snow and threats of additional storms. The cold was something I had harped on over 2 weeks ago, and someone commented on the site yesterday on what a bunch of hype that was. These are the temperature departures 5 days from now. How's that for hype? With fresh significant snow on the ground, this is the type of set-up that can get you 20-25 below, straight up. Just last night with all the snow on the ground, Lowden, Iowa dropped to 16 below and the air mass was nowhere near as cold as this.

About all I can say is there is a lot of winter on the table the next 7 days. I hope you're hungry. Stand bye for updates. Roll weather, and if you can spare a donation, I will see to it that it's money well spent....TS



Comments


  ARCHIVED POSTS 
 
 RECENT  POSTS 
© 2024 Terry Swails
bottom of page