THEY'RE BACK....
Nobody invited them, but hot steamy weather conditions returned to the region Monday and right on cue, scattered thunderstorms are expected to follow Tuesday. However, the evolution of the storms is complicated and highly contingent on the position of a cool front creeping into the region and any rogue outflow boundaries that pop up.
Back tracking, Monday was a fascinating day in western Iowa and Minnesota, where severe weather parameters were literally off the charts. Early Monday evening (CAPE) which measures instability, was as high as 8,000 j/kg. That is an explosive atmosphere in terms of the potential energy indicated.
The violent tornado index in NC Iowa was at 12, the highest we have seen all year in Iowa.
The supercell index which measure the potential for rotating supercells was 66! 8-12 is considered significant!
The derecho index was also loaded at 16. We all know what those types of systems can do.
Yet, the satellite image at 7:00pm showed the only storms in northern Minnesota and SW Wisconsin, well outside the most unstable environment.
So why, with such a dynamic environment, were there not intense thunderstorms in Iowa and central Minnesota? The answer lies in what we call a CAP, a layer of stable warm air at roughly 3-7,000 feet. Updrafts that normally would grow into strong storms are suppressed by the CAP. All that potential energy goes unrealized or storms form later when the CAP breaks well after sunset. By then, instability is more manageable, especially towards the edge of the CAP, where there is enough cooling aloft for storms to make a breakthrough.
As I write this, the CAP has shown minimal signs of breaking in Minnesota or NE Iowa. On the outside chance storms do fire there, they are expected to charge SE during the late night. With the CAPE (instability) aligned N/NW to S/SE, any convection that forms should feed on it and travel the edge of it, giving my counties near and west of the Mississippi the best chance of seeing development. This now appears unlikely and despite an enhanced risk of severe weather in my NE counties overnight, current trends indicate most areas staying dry with a warm, sticky start to Tuesday.
That leads us into the remainder of the day and additional storm chances. Following any stray morning storms, abundant sunshine will allow strong heating. Highs should range from near 90 north to the mid 90s far south. The HRRR is even more aggressive and can't be fully discounted based on highs Monday in the upper 90s in SC and SE Iowa. It shows highs around 100 in Burlington
With dew points progged in the 70-75 degree range, it will be very uncomfortable.
In fact, the HRR shows heat index values of 100 to 106 over the region from north to south. That may be on the high side, but it's not out of the question if the front holds up north of I-80. It's possible the NWS could issue heat headlines in the south half of the area.
Once again, all this heat and humidity translates to raw energy and potential instability Tuesday afternoon. The HRRR manifests that in CAPE values over 4,000 j/kg. along I-80.
With a boundary encroaching on that towards evening, most models indicate enough forcing to allow the CAP to break and storms to fire that time. Where that occurs is low confidence, but the southern half (near and to the south of I-80 is favored.) SPC has a level 2 slight risk in effect for the potential of strong storms later Tuesday. Strong winds would be the primary risk. Again, placement of storms is highly contingent on how mesoscale factors come into play base on overnight events.
Additionally, PWATs (available water vapor) are nearing 2.5 inches, which ensures intense downpours where storms can fire. An inch or two of rain could fall in less than an hour. It looks as though the northern third of my area may avoid most of the storms, but from roughly I-80 south, the day could end with a bang. No matter how you slice it, Tuesday will be a high impact weather day with heat, humidity, and the threat of strong storms.
Wednesday and Thursday will be dry days, with temperatures declining and humidity falling, especially Thursday. Highs Wednesday will cool back to the low to mid 80s and Thursday upper 70s north to low 80s south seems reasonable. The next chance of rain is back with us Friday.
Should be an interesting day ahead. Until next time, roll weather...TS
MY AIRBNB AWAITS YOU. SEE WHAT GUESTS ARE SAYING.
AIRBNB has rated my renovated church in Galena A GUEST FAVORITE, A MOST LOVED home according to visitors. Check out some of our reviews and some of the flexible deals we have available below.
Christa-Monument, Colorado
The Little White Church is amazing!!!! Pictures do not do it justice. I would absolutely recommend it to my friends and family. It is just so unique. Carolyn is an amazing host and super responsive. I would give our experience 6 out of 5 stars if I could.
Phillip-Queensland, Australia
Amazing and thoughtful renovation. Stayed in a piece of history. Great location and modern amenities. Would stay again!
Jill
The Little White Church is beautiful. The decorations are perfect, and it was redone with impeccable taste. Carolyn was a great host.
Brent
Such a gem. Relaxing in the countryside in a historic church that was beautifully decorated and recently renovated was exactly what we experienced. Everyone loved our stay, and we will be back!!!
Leigh
Beautiful and unique. We were all captivated by the adorable chapel turned AIRBNB
Jenny-Frisco, Texas
It was a magical place for our family to celebrate Christmas!
Kelly
What a gem! The Little White Church exceeded our expectations. It was the perfect spot to meet up with another couple to relax and explore nearby Galena. We enjoyed the beautiful great room with its fireplace and amazing views of the rolling countryside. (The photos simply can't do it justice). The charming church/home was quiet, well appointed and clean. And Carolyn was proactive with instructions and a terrific communicator. We will definitely be back!
John
Absolutely incredible! Loved the tranquility and the beautiful views. The decor was so inviting. AND the bell tower works!! Would 100% stay here again!
Tori-Cedar Falls
This place is so beautiful! Carolyn and Terry were so thoughtful and kind to let us have our wedding at the church. They even provided extra supplies in case we needed them. The private garden worked perfectly for our ceremony, and the backyard easily fit our reception needs. Not to mention, the balconies make perfect photo spots! My husband and I recommend the Little White Church and will be telling all our friends about it.
Mahesh-Buffalo Grove
Carolyn was a great host, very flexible! The place is super clean, spacious with a private backyard overlooking the fields and bluffs! We spent a lot of time on the deck. Great kitchen, clean bedrooms and baths. Highly recommend the place.
William
Great place. Great host. Will definitely book again and tell our friends.
Miriam
Carolyn and Terry's place is BEAUTIFUL! The Little White Church is a wonderful place, way more beautiful than the pictures. Everything is brand new and extremely clean. Staying at the church was a unique experience and I would love to come back soon. I strongly recommend the place if you are looking for a 5-star location!
Vanessa-Chicago
Carolyn was great! Absolutely beautiful place! I would not hesitate to go back. We spent Thanksgiving and the next night. Very well stocked and above and beyond with extras included. Thank you!
MAKE US AN OFFER...
What about pricing? Right now, we are able to offer you our best pricing ever. We have 3 nights for the price of 2 which, depending on the days, can save as much as $300-$400 dollars. If you book directly through us, you can also eliminate booking fees and taxes that the big chains charge. Cleaning fees are also drastically reduced. It all adds up to exceptional deals at a destination worth visiting. Let us assist in finding a time and price that works for you. Here's a link to some pictures. https://www.tswails.com/galena-airbnb
Carolyn and I will do all we can to make sure your stay is a memorable one. Please call or text Carolyn for more details and options and get a prime date while they are still available. Again, that's Carolyn at 563-676-3320. Or carolynswettstone@yahoo.com
Now that it's vacation season, there is no better place to visit than Galena and no better place to stay than my newly renovated AIRBNB, the Little White Church. We are located in the bluffs, just 5 miles from the 2nd largest tourism destination in Illinois. In fact, "Tourist Destination", rated Galena as the 2023 top place to visit in the entire Midwest.
Now is the best time to enjoy all there is to offer, and my 5-star AIRBNB is the perfect location to stay. Set in the rolling hills just outside of town, our completely renovated church is designed for you to unwind and relax.
Again, we are an AIRBNB Super host and can accommodate up to 8 guests. We've got cable, hi-speed WIFI, Sirius XM and a sparkling full kitchen. We are a home away from home and take great pride in cleanliness and comfort. All of our ratings have attained perfect 5-star status!
Hope to see you soon,
Terry and Carolyn
7 GREAT REASONS TO VISIT GALENA
1. It’s Steeped In History
2. It’s Home To One Of The Best Main Streets In America
3. The Restaurants Are Amazing
4. There’s A Lot To Do Outdoors
5. You Don’t Have To Travel To The Mountains To Go Skiing
6. It’s A Great Place To Spend The Fourth Of July
7. Did I Mention The Shopping?
