THEN THERE WAS NONE...
88% THERE, JUST A LITTLE MORE HELP
MY FUNDRAISER CONTINUES....
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A TROPICAL HEAT WAVE....
If there is one thing that's true about our weather, it's the fact its rarely boring, even when we don't have a storm to tackle. Just a week ago today, the morning low in Cedar Rapids was 14 below with about 6 inches of snow on the ground. Yesterday afternoon the snow's all gone and the high rocketed to 59 degrees. (That old sun is getting stronger by the day). For some additional perspective on the change, consider the fact that in 6 days, temperatures rose more than 70 degrees around the region, 73 to be exact in Cedar Rapids. For some extra fun, if you consider the wind chill of 35 below last week, it "felt" 94 degrees warmer Monday. That ain't boring!
Here's a look at all the 50s and 60s Monday afternoon. Nice....
These are the reported highs from NWS metar observations Monday.
A weak cold front kicked up a few brief showers and sprinkles Monday evening. A similar threat exists late Tuesday night or Wednesday with another fast moving disturbance. I would not look for much with meager forcing and moisture. Overall, the pattern continues to appear dry through the upcoming weekend.
Of more importance is the fact that we are not to be void of the mild air anytime soon. Look at what the meteograms of the EURO and GFS show for temperatures through early March, I see a bit of March madness here.
The EURO shows highs again near 60 Friday and another run at 60 around the 10th. No high temperature is shown colder than 38 through March 11th.
The GFS is a bit cooler than the EURO the next 7 days and then explodes with 3 days of 60s March 8th-10th. Nothing worse than a 36 for a high. I would not bet a lot on that proposition just yet but its not far fetched.
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TELECONNECTIONS SUPPORT THE MILD IDEA.
I do think that the mild look of the mid range pattern has merit. The AO is shown staying positive which should shut the door on Arctic air until mid March, then we'll see what a impacts a strat warm has after that.
The EPO is strongly positive which indicates a lack of west coast ridging that's necessary for deep cold air intrusions.
Additionally, the PNA is trending negative. That implies troughing is likely to develop over the west. More often than not, mild air (and more moisture) will have acess to the Midwest ahead of any storms coming out of the trough. It does point to a more active pattern but not until March 4th or 5th.
In a nutshell, I'm of the mindset that much of the next 7days are mild and relatively dry. After that things should pick up from a precipitation standpoint, especially if the 500mb pattern the EURO depicts develops. Below you can see several vigourous troughs aimed at the Midwest the 10th, (one exiting, one digging into the Pacific NW, and another set to dive in behind that). Where we set relative to the cold air will determine what type of weather we get be it rain or snow. Whatever happens, that looks like a very energetic pattern that could be lots of fun. The wave lengths appear to be shortening and thats a sign the transition to spring is stirring. March storms can be some of the best with thunderstorms in the warm sector and heavy snow to the NW. I say bring it.
Before I call it, here's the 7 day precipitation departures. They certainly confirm my thoughts about the lack of any significant storms or precipitation through March 3rd.
The EURO
The GFS
Well, that's the long and short of it tonight. Hope you are enjoying the thaw. Roll weather, and if you can spare a donation, I will see to it that it's money well spent....TS
