THE SNOW TRIFECTA!
....A MESSAGE FROM TSWAILS....
Hi everyone, I'm asking for your help to raise funds for the time I invest in this site and its operational costs. So far it's been a struggle and donations are 50 percent less than at this point last year. I realize times are tough, and we are all feeling the pinch. That's a big reason why this is a no pay site. Many of you are daily visitors and make financial or personal decisions based on the information presented. The majority of you appreciate the honesty, accuracy, and knowledge that you gain. If you fall into any of those categories, I ask that you make a $20 dollar investment in what I feel is a unique and reliable product. That way, we can keep things rolling as they have for more than 12 years. The future is in your hands, and I hugely appreciate the generosity of those who have contributed. So again, if you find value in the site and see the effort that's put into it, please consider a minimal donation to support TSwails today. Thanks for your time and loyalty, TS
THE TRIFECTA...
It's been nearly two weeks since I took note of the fact teleconnections were signaling a wintry period was lining up for next week and beyond. Teleconnections are not designed to be precise. Their purpose and usefulness is in pointing out potential trends before models can hone in on them with specific details. We have passed the point of teleconnections and are now moving to guidance models. Additionally, we are now getting closer to the beginning of the event. Data is starting to get better sampled, which in theory improves the consistency and accuracy of the models.
I'm thinking that's playing into the fact that the 3 major models that provide data for a minimum of 10 days are showing better consistency in snow forecasts. We're still not to the point of specific numbers and some alterations remain likely, but the trends have tightened up in the morning runs. What I was excited about today were the ensembles of the EURO and GFS both painting a more aggressive look for snow potential next week, but not until the 12th and beyond. Here's the latest numbers. Remember, ensembles have many members, each with somewhat different input. Some may show 15 inches and others 1 or 2. In the end, the data is averaged or smoothed and this is what you get.
The EURO ensemble
The GFS ensemble
The Canadian GEM ensemble
Now, let's focus on the operational models. They are centered on a single run and are more localized and specific. That does not mean they are better, especially since the snow is about 5 days away. The amounts are not to be trusted, but are valuable for setting trends. You will notice a difference towards higher amounts, especially considering snow ratios are considered that will be greater than the 10:1 ratio of the ensembles.
The EURO
The GFS
The Canadian GEM
In conclusion, it's important to note this is not the final solution. It's a step in that direction. My take was that it was a good run for snow considering we had good model consistency, and we are getting closer to the event. We'll see if we can keep it going in future runs. Meantime, I don't see any real concerns until approximately the 12th. Stay tuned. Roll weather and if you can spare a donation, I will see to it that it's money well spent....TS
