THE SOUTH TREND HOLDS....

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We're in for a pair of mild days before a winter storm moves across the central part of the country. The storm will bring heavy snow and arctic air. The bulk of the snow will likely fall near and south of my local area, with southeast Iowa and parts of Illinois in the crosshairs.

Here's the probability of at least 1" of snow on Wednesday per the Weather Prediction Center:

We'll talk more about that storm in a moment. Let's talk about the days leading up to it. Temperatures will be warming above freezing on Monday afternoon:

The melting continues on Tuesday:

Colder air will start to move in ahead of the storm.

A wave of snow will develop on Wednesday as cold air pushes south:

We talked about that high pressure system to the north and that has come further south along with dry air in place leading to the system being pushed further south.

So here's the latest snowfall outputs... European:

The further north GFS:

The further south and more compact NAM:

This is going to be a difficult storm with a tight gradient due to the dry air on the north side and warmer air on the south side, which will lead to a wintry mix/rain.

Regardless of where this snow falls, it will turn much colder for the second half of the week. Temperatures will drop Tuesday night into Wednesday:

And stays cold on Thursday:

We'll continue to watch for minor changes in that track, but for now that southern trend seems to be holding.

RK

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