THE PROOF'S IN THE PUDDING

The proof is in the pudding. It turns out that March was one of the warmest on record in 131 years of data. In fact, for the nation as a whole, it was the 5th warmest. Only 3 states were not in the top 100 warmest years, and in Iowa only 5 years were warmer than March 2025 (6 years in Illinois).

That's why our recent weather has been a little tough to swallow. We've gone from well above normal readings to those that are several degrees below. Tuesday morning was a real eye-opener with some parts of EC and NE Iowa down in the teens for lows. These are April temperature departures for the past 5 days.

Compare that to the temperature departures of the previous 45 days, quite a flip since the onset of April.

For a bit more perspective, as to just how mild it's been the past 5 weeks, the low of 18 Tuesday morning in Dubuque was the coldest temperature in 38 days. The last that was colder was a low of 13 degrees March 2nd. Just as impressive is the fact the temperature had never been lower than 22 the past 37 days! Many times I've seen it below zero in March. In fact, I just looked it up in Dubuque, and all of the first 14 days of March have record lows below zero, with the coldest 20 below in 1962.

Here are the lows reported around the region Tuesday morning. Fortunately, winds were light and essentially there were no wind chills. The ridge axis was right overhead, which produced ideal conditions for maximal radiational cooling. Elkader, Iowa which resides in the Turkey River Valley, is known for its cold temperatures, having set the record for the all-time coldest reading in Iowa, (47 below, February 3rd, 1996). Tuesday, it was one of the coldest in the Midwest at 13 degrees. Kudos!

NOTHING SPECIAL, THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK

Wednesday will be a tricky day of forecasting due to a clipper that cuts across southern Iowa. It looks to produce enough warm air advection to generate some pockets of light rain. A wave goes through in the morning with a few scattered light showers. That allows a warm front to reach far southern Iowa, where it stalls as the primary energy passes later in the day. The second round of vorticity looks a bit stronger and is focused north of the clipper. That is expected to generate a more stratiform area of light rain, that falls mainly north of HWY 30 in the afternoon. Temperatures will be close to snow producing levels in my far northern counties, but as of now, the white stuff should remain just north of HWY 20. The simulated radar of the 3k NAM around 4:00PM. does show the snow lurking close by in Wisconsin. Showers extend further south into EC Iowa and northern Illinois

Notice the temperatures, near of just south of the warm front, highs could reach the low 60s in SE Iowa. In the far north, mid to upper 40s prevail on its cold side. The GFS has a 20 degree spread.

Once the initial clipper departs early evening there is a lull and a new, but weaker wave of showers digs southeast towards daybreak late Wednesday night. This is nothing to write home about as far as amounts go, but the 3k NAM does show the possibility of a few snowflakes mixing in with the rain early Thursday. Here it is on the simulated radar of the 3K around 6:00AM Thursday moving SE.

With the boundary still across the region Thursday, that means another day when the north remains considerably cooler than the south. Highs should range from around 50 north to the low 60s far south.

As for snow, nothing of consequence is expected to reach my northern counties, aside from the possibility of a few wet flakes mixing in with the showers where they occur early Thursday near HWY 20. Here's what models are suggesting for snow amounts.

The EURO

The GFS

The 3k NAM, far too aggressive on totals.

Between the periods of showers the next 48 hours, this is what is depicted for rainfall totals through Thursday. Aside from some rogue bands, rainfall amounts will mainly be around 1/10th of an inch or less.

The EURO

The GFS

The 3k NAM

Friday all the forcing shifts east, but some low level moisture remains trapped and that could lead to a mostly cloudy day with temperatures again well below normal in the 50s. If we can sneak a few breaks of sunshine in maybe closer to 60.

Saturday winds make a move to the south, however it appears the real warmth holds off until Sunday following the passage of a warm front. Highs will go from the upper 50s to low 60s Saturday to the upper 60s to low 70s Sunday. Both days will be dry with a mixture of sun and clouds.

Monday, another cold front races east and is followed by a push-pull pattern of ups and downs the following week. The EURO meteogram has us fluctuating regularly from mild to chilly, pretty typical stuff for mid-April.

Due to the fast moving nature of the pattern, storms will have little chance to amplify and tap moisture. As a result, the EURO shows much of the country, especially the Midwest, well below normal on rainfall the next two weeks. That's a bit concerning as we are into the time of year when we need to stock up on moisture before experiencing the heat and less frequent rains of summer.

Well, there you go. Spring is pretty much on hold until we can flip the pattern, and that won't be anytime soon. Roll weather...TS

GATHER AT OUR PLACE IN GALENA THIS EASTER

The Little White Church of Galena (my AIRBNB) is the perfect spot to gather the family this Easter. We still have an opening and would be thrilled to host you. We can accommodate 8 in our fully remodeled 1890 church. Take advantage of our special rate for either a 2 or 3 day stay. We've got all the amenities and we are a 5 star superhost. Call or text Carolyn 563-676-3320 for details. https://www.littlewhitechurchgalena.com/