THE MONEY BALL...
Before I get to the quality weekend ahead of us, I did want to point out the unwelcome changes in the freshly released drought monitor. As you would expect, with Friday being the 25th consecutive day with no measurable rain in much of the region, drought conditions continue to worsen areawide. The vast majority of my area is now in moderate to extreme drought.
By far the worst conditions are found in the eastern half of Iowa where 25% of the region is in extreme drought. Three months ago less than 1% or the state was classified as extreme. As of September 5th, 91% of Iowa is considered to be in moderate to extreme drought. Three months ago that number was at 42.7% indicating the drought is steadily expanding and growing more severe.
The latest outlook for the month of September shows drought persisting or developing throughout the central United States.
It's interesting to note there has been a distinct trend for dry conditions the past 3 years across the state of Iowa. As bad as it is this year, 2013 was significantly worse.
For sure, rain is not in the forecast through the day Sunday. What is on the table is some first rate weather with high pressure ruling the roost. Sunshine will slowly spread through all of the area Friday and then remain in our skies until late Sunday when clouds begin to increase ahead of what could be our next rain maker. Highs both Friday and Saturday should cluster in the mid to upper 70s before approaching 80 Sunday. A fine weekend indeed. We picked the money ball...
Things get far more complex Sunday night and Monday when a cold front approaches from the northwest. That should provide the warm air advection to provide at least scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. Once that passes an upper air low closes off over the upper Midwest. That ultimately develops a surface reflection providing another round of lift for additional showers later Tuesday and Tuesday night. Between the two rounds of forcing, models have increased the precipitation potential. That said, there are differences in phasing and placement of the heavier showers. This needs to be resolved in coming days and beneficial rainfall is far from a certain thing in any area . Between the two systems here's what guidance is suggesting for rain totals over the 48 hour period from Sunday night through Tuesday night. Despite discrepancies in placement, the encouraging fact is both solutions include amounts of an inch or more in select spots. Whatever the outcome, we will take whatever we get in a heartbeat! Fingers crossed.
The EURO
The GFS
Depending on the extent of clouds and precipitation, temperatures are likely to be well below normal Monday through Wednesday of next week. Here's what the Climate Prediction Center is indicating for temperatures in the 6-10 day period.
Back to the here and now as we start the weekend, some fine weather is ours for the taking. I suggest doing just that as the early portions of next week have the potential to be unsettled over the central Midwest. With that I bid you an excellent Friday. Roll weather...TS
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