THE LOOK AND FEEL OF FALL...

The Calendar said early August but Wednesday's weather had the look and feel of September. Grey skies, highs in the low to mid 70s, and even some rain at times was a reminder that summer is on the downside. It won't be all that long before frost is on the pumpkins. Recently, I've noticed the shorter evenings with the sun slowly but surely setting earlier. The long march to winter is well underway.

Enough of that. As for the rain Wednesday, it went about as expected with the heavier amounts in the south and little if anything in the north. Here's the Doppler estimates.

By the way, those temperatures Thursday were as much as 12 degrees below what's typical, hence the September feel.

STILL TIME.... BIG SAVINGS AT THE CHURCH THIS WEEKEND

We've had a last minute cancellation which means that my AIRBNB is available this Friday and Saturday in Galena for the exceptional price of $800...That includes taxes and the cleaning fee! A savings of $450. Shop around, you'll be hard pressed to find a deal in the area better than that. We can sleep 8 with 3 full bathrooms, a full kitchen, cable, internet, and XM stereo. Less than 10 minutes from Galena the church is brand new with 5 star reviews and high end amenities. Make the experience yours this weekend! Call or text Carolyn at the number above.

AN ACTIVE PATTERN AHEAD

The disturbance that brought the sub-par conditions is now off to the east promising better weather Thursday as we break out some sunshine and send temperatures into the range of 82-84, that's close to normal.

Friday a fast moving short wave streaks across the Midwest with an attending cold front. Preceding it moisture makes a quick surge into the Midwest with dew points climbing into the mid to upper 60s. That combined with daytime heating (highs in the mid 80s) establishes respectable instability that's shown reaching 4,000j/kg in SE Iowa and WC Illinois.

The supercell composite on the 3k also reaches significant numbers indicating the potential for robust rotating updrafts with a 50 kt 500mb jet.

SPC indicates a slight risk of severe thunderstorms Friday afternoon and evening. Damaging winds and heavy downpours are the primary concerns. Timing and mesoscale details yet to be determined will be critical as to whether or not severe weather is much of a player. Some models show a bust with little if any development while others are more aggressive. Whatever happens, at the very least scattered showers and thunderstorms will be in the forecast Friday as the front makes its way across the region.

Beyond Friday, high pressure on the systems backend will influence the sensible weather throughout the weekend. A nice dry air mass is anticipated Saturday as evidenced by dew points in the 50s in most spots. Highs will be in the low to mid 80s.

The progressive fast moving NW flow sends another short wave towards the Midwest Sunday. It brings a strong threat of showers and storms but timing is such that they should hold off until Sunday night. Moisture will increase ahead of the system allowing dew points to get back in the 60s by Sunday evening. With highs in the mid (to perhaps upper 80s south), Sunday will be a summer day. That sets the table for what appears to be active thunderstorms Sunday night along a vigorous cold front. On paper the set-up has severe weather potential if current timing trends hold.

As I've noted here the past few days, the pattern recently has been for the south to be wet and the north dry. The baroclinic boundary with its moisture, forcing, and rain has been focused on the area near and south of I-80. I was just looking at the 16 day rainfall departures on the GFS and its solution shows more of the same for the period ending August 25th. Notice deficits near 2 inches in the north while south of I-80 surpluses of an an inch or more exist.

I'm hoping that trend fails to materialize and we can distribute the rains where they are needed the most between Friday and Sunday nights upcoming opportunities. Be that as it may, we've got a decent day to look forward to Thursday. Here's to that. Roll weather...TS