THE KITCHEN SINK...
We're deep into the dog days now, a time of year known for its sluggish weather patterns. Typically, the main band of westerlies and any cool temperatures are well to the north. That results in hazy, lazy summery conditions here in the Midwest. This year (especially recently), we have entered a progressive pattern that is more active than usual. That may be in part to the developing El Nino. No matter what, we've got several more systems lined up with rain chances Friday and again Sunday night.
Here's what Friday's system looks like at 500mb as it digs in from the northwest.
This system is going to be challenge in that it will be accompanied by 2 potential waves of showers and storms. What happens with the first wave will have a great deal with whether the second round forms and if so, how strong it will be? At any rate, the initial wave will be in a decaying state when it arrives Friday morning as the remnants of overnight storms, (potentially driven by an MCV...mesoscale convective vorticity). It's hard to say how much clout will be left but the 3k NAM simulated radar does indicate a broken line of storms near or just west of the Mississippi near daybreak moving east. Some brief downpours and gusty winds are possible in spots before the activity fizzles or moves out of my eastern counties by noon.
Current indications are that sunshine will follow any morning rain allowing for significant afternoon heating. Highs may reach the mid to upper 80s in many areas with dew points in the low to perhaps mid 70s. If those numbers are realized, that combination will lead to significant instability and CAPE exceeding 4,000 j/kg in the southeast.
Sufficient shear will also accompany the instability leading to a high supercell index (rotating storms) in parts of the southeast.
Low level wind profiles on the 3k NAM also indicate a tornado threat in the same general area of the south.
Despite a loaded gun for severe weather Friday afternoon and evening, there is doubt about the trigger being pulled allowing severe storms to blossom. The timing of the front is going to be a critical element to watch along with other mesoscale details yet to be resolved, especially any sort of outflow boundary from morning convection. Capping could also end up being a factor. If there is too much warm air aloft it could inhibit updrafts and storms would struggle to go up. At least at the time of this post, confidence is still low that storms will even develop and I'm not convinced that they will. However, if they do they could rapidly grow strong with all modes of severe weather possible. The region from about the Quad Cities southeast appears to me to have the greatest potential. SPC continues with a slight risk outlook in place for much of the area Friday.
Once this threat departs Friday night, Saturday is setting up to be a sunny warm day with lower humidity moving in. Highs in most spots will be back around 85.
Sunday another vigorous short wave approaches from the northern Plains. It's deepening as it digs and eventually closes off an impressive 500mb closed circulation. Here it is at 500mb Sunday night.
Based on recent trends, Sunday itself looks to be another warm dry day with highs remaining at seasonal levels in the mid 80s. Moisture starts out low but rapidly increases during the afternoon ahead of the approaching storm. By evening the GFS has water vapor (PWAT's) reaching 1.5 to 2.00 inches .
If the moisture return is there as indicated on the GFS, the deepening surface low and its cold front will have the energy to produce strong thunderstorms in central Iowa toward Sunday evening. These appear to have a good chance of surging east toward the region Sunday night. Timing is still somewhat uncertain which will dictate the severe weather potential locally but even after dark the dynamics would suggest some strong updrafts with the potential to produce some beneficial rain, which the north could really use.
By the way, it remains to be seen but the GFS (and to some degree the EURO) are showing a strong heat dome developing in the long range period starting around August 20th.
The hottest temperatures relative to average are shown by the GFS over the upper Midwest August 23rd with readings 25-35 degrees above normal. Very unlikely in my opinion.
Again, I for one think this is WAY over baked but the potential is there for some late summer heat for about 5 days August 20th-25th. This pattern would also have an active "ring of fire" with strong nocturnal thunderstorm potential if the general set-up is realized. I'm just throwing it out as something to watch down the road. I'll believe it when I see it.
Lots of action on the table the next 10 days. Everything but the kitchen sink. That's it for this rodeo. Happy Friday and roll weather...TS
GREAT PRICES, BUY 2 NIGHTS, GET ONE NIGHT FREE...
NOW THIS IS "SPECIAL"
Hey everybody! I've got some openings the next few weeks at my AIRBNB, The Little White Church of Galena. I would like to fill it up and that means I'm willing to deal. Contact us direct and we can eliminate the AIRBNB fees and taxes. That means big savings for you. Weekday rates are especially good. ASK ABOUT OUR BUY 2 NIGHTS, GET ONE FREE DEAL. The newly remodeled church includes 3 bedrooms, 4 HD TV's, high speed internet, all in a beautiful country setting. All of our reviews are 5 STAR. There's no better time to enjoy Galena and all it has to offer. Split the cost with friends and family and we'll set you up with a deal that's as good as it gets. Call or text Carolyn at 563-676-3320 or email carolynswettstone@yahoo.com We would be thrilled to have you as guests!
Comments