THE IDES OF NOVEMBER...
We all know that the sooner or later, the weather will catch up with the times. The end result, cold and some snow, will find its way to the Midwest. So far, good tidings have been with us and this has been a fall to remember as far as fine weather is concerned. You may recall, a line from William Shakespeare's play the Tragedy of Julius Caesar, "beware the ides of March". A soothsayer emerges from a crowd and warns Caesar twice the Ides of March were coming. Caesar dismisses the man as a dreamer, enters the Senate building, and is promptly assassinated.
Well, I doubt November will be assassinated, but I am looking at some data that more or less says, beware the Ides of November, changes are coming. I've got a lot of years under my belt, and an event 9 days away is not something I would stake my soothsayer reputation on. On the other hand, if I see something with potential, I will at least acknowledge there is evidence on the table that some version of it is possible. That's where I stand tonight.
INTERESTING RUNS
Take a look at this: The last 2 runs of the GFS have shown 500mb patterns that depict a large cold core cut-off low over the central U.S. around November 19th.
The 18z run
The 12Z run
On top of that, The EURO artificial intelligence run (based on similar patterns/analogs of the past) suggests this at the same time.
The 18z EURO AI
All three of the runs indicate strong upper level blocking in Canada that would promote cyclogenesis in the mid-latitudes. Wherever the system forms, it is likely to move little for several says being vertically stacked and stuck in the underbelly of the block.
Aside from good model consensus, we have this occurring in the MJO (Madden Julien Oscillation). November 11th, the MJO is in phase 1, getting set to spend the next 10 days in phase 2.
Below, you can see what phase 2 500mb heights look like in November with a nearly neutral La Niña. Go back up and compare the forecast 500mb charts I showed above, they are dead ringers for the phase 2 analog.
WHAT ARE THE POSSIBLE IMPLICATIONS FOR OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER?
As mentioned above, this would likely be a fairly slow system with strong dynamics and a significant swath of precipitation. It could be a multi-day event for much of the area that ends up in the most concentrated deformation zone. That's already shown in the GFS and EURO AI. These are 72 hour totals
The 18z GFS
The 12z GFS
The 18Z EURO AI (which only shows 24-hour increments), is not on scale with the 72-hour totals of the GFS. Additionally, you can see the AI is further east, with the storm's center pushing the heavier band more to the SE.
So while I have pretty good confidence a respectable storm is in the making around November 19-20th, there is still considerable doubt about where it tracks and the eventual impacts it will have across the central Midwest.
Another factor is the fact that temperatures will turn colder with this disturbance, and there is the potential for a wintry component northwest of the center. Tackling temperatures is next to impossible in any sort of detail, but the broad brush approach does indicate steady cooling once the storm comes together and wobbles east. Under the cold pool, there may be enough dynamic cooling to flip rain to snow. A detail yet to be resolved, especially this far east. As the system passes, the Midwest has a good chance of seeing the coolest air of the season. That said, I don't see any connection to Arctic air so it will be crisp, but only a few degrees below normal. The GFS shows this in its 5-day departures in the run-up to Thanksgiving, November 22-27th.
Interestingly enough, all post storm guidance shows the MJO heading to phases 5, 6, and 7 by early December, which implies warmer readings will return until it cycles back into colder phases after mid-December. Indeed, if this system comes to pass, which is still not a given, I don't see any harsh wintry conditions locking in yet.
I am anxious to see where trends lead us in coming days. More often than not, this early in the season, these types of systems tend to track further NW, keeping the bulk of any snow in NW Iowa and Minnesota. That would also keep rain as the primary precipitation type and temperatures somewhat warmer. Either way, we could be in for several days of damp, dreary weather if this thing does come together. At the very least, I see some noteworthy temperatures changes in just over a week that are preceded by wet weather.
NICELY DONE...
Meantime, we are on track for another outstanding November day. Sunshine and light SE winds will combine with highs in the upper 40s to low 50s making it a winner.
Beyond that, a system similar to the one that came through this past Saturday will bring a chance of light showers late Wednesday afternoon or evening. Forcing and moisture look less than ideal and thus rain totals should come in on the light side, maybe a tenth or two in spots. Highs Wednesday remain fairly constant in the upper 40s north to the low to mid 50s south.
That's where I will leave it for now. Until next time, roll weather...TS
PEOPLE LOVE IT. OUR AIRBNB IS A MOST LOVED GUEST FAVORITE!
ANOTHER 5-STAR REVIEW....thanks Myriam
AIRBNB has rated my renovated church in Galena A GUEST FAVORITE, A MOST LOVED home according to visitors. Check out some of our reviews and get in on the flexible deals we have available below.
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MAKE US AN OFFER...
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Hope to see you soon,
Terry and Carolyn
7 GREAT REASONS TO VISIT GALENA
1. It’s Steeped In History
2. It’s Home To One Of The Best Main Streets In America
3. The Restaurants Are Amazing
4. There’s A Lot To Do Outdoors
5. You Don’t Have To Travel To The Mountains To Go Skiing
6. It’s A Great Place To Spend The Fourth Of July
7. Did I Mention The Shopping
