THE HOLE GETS DEEPER...
The latest drought monitor is in and as expected the news is not good. Much of my area has been upgraded to moderate drought after the limited rains of the past week. 7 days ago just 32 percent of the Midwest was in the moderate classification. Today the number has increased to 48.7 percent. Only 11 percent of the Midwest is not considered at least abnormally dry.
Notice the changes in Iowa and Illinois with the previous outlook (on the right) showing abnormally dry conditions compared to the the current assessment of moderate drought on the left.
The drought is also expanding with its footprint now showing high impact dryness from the central Plains through the Midwest, Ohio Valley, and parts of the mid-Atlantic.
In the month of May alone rainfall in my area was been only 10 percent of normal.
The Climate Prediction Center indicates that drought is expected to persist (or develop) from eastern Iowa and Missouri to points east June 15th through September 15th.
May 9th is when the pattern turned and during that 6 week period since here's what rainfall looks like as a percentage of normal. Many places in eastern Iowa and central Illinois are in the 10-25 percent category.
Near Muscatine, Iowa the total rainfall percentage compared to normal is just 4 percent!
Between Monmouth and Galesburg Illinois the numbers are in the 5-7 percent category.
Below you can see how the drought classifications have changed since May 2nd. Red values indicate degradation, green indicate improvement. Outside of NC and SC Iowa few places have seen improvement.
The CPC summary of conditions reads like this.
Midwest
A storm system over the Midwest and Great Lakes over the weekend did little to halt widespread degradation of conditions across the Midwest. Although some locations did experience modest improvements, mainly in areas seeing in excess of 2 inches of rainfall, degradation to moderate drought (D1) and expansion of abnormal dryness (D0) is widespread across the Corn Belt, the Lower Peninsula of Michigan, and the Upper Midwest. High rates of evaporation from soils and vegetation over the past 1 to 2 months have resulted in large losses to soil moisture, with stream flows also dropping significantly across many of these same areas (falling below the 10th percentile of the historical distribution, particularly across the southern Great Lakes and the Corn Belt). There are many reports of browning and stressed vegetation, with several producers already resorting to supplemental feeding for their livestock due to reduced forage. Loss of yield remains a large concern for many.
SO WHERE DO WE GO FROM HERE?
One thing is certain, rain is out of the picture Friday and Saturday. A backdoor cool front passed quietly but efficiently late Thursday bringing in cooler and much drier air (as if we needed it). With a new high pressure setting up shop over the Great Lakes it will provide a block for the next system that arrives Saturday night/Sunday. As the disturbance presses east it will fight dry low levels and the rain band weakens and turns southeast into a more favorable environment. Some light amounts may reach my western and southern counties but the EURO is dry and the GFS shows little if any rain outside of SE Iowa which I think is overdone.
The EURO
The GFS
Once Sunday's system departs, we get back into a stagnant pattern next week where there is no forcing or organized storms to contend with. That portends another dry week of weather ahead. Here's the rainfall departures shown on the EURO and GFS for the coming 2 weeks ending June 30th.
The EURO
The GFS
While there are no strong signs of extreme heat to further worsen the situation I worry about the potential. Highs in the 2 week period on the EURO and GFS ensembles are very warm with the dry soils and low level atmosphere providing the feedback necessary to keep readings above normal. The EURO is the warmest of the two models which I think is the more likely scenario. Here's the meteograms.
The EURO
The GFS
Also, wildfire smoke was a major factor Thursday and that unusual facet of our weather will be with us again Friday. Hopefully vertical mixing will lead to lower impacts. Here's the RAP models idea of where smoke is most likely to be found at mid-day Friday.
If nothing else the weekend will get off to a comfortable start Friday with highs back in the range of 75-80 and dew points only in the upper 40s to low 50s. That's the silver lining I offer you today. Roll weather...TS
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