THE HEAT IS ON, SOON!

We've had our share of 80s this spring, but so far only my southern counties have attained the lofty summit of 90 degrees. Here's the high temperatures since March 1st at the NWS office in Davenport, Iowa. You can see only one 90 degree day, that being a 91, May 21st.

As I've been touting for the last week, summer looks to be heating up and the first prolonged stretch of hot weather is on the way. Here's the mean 500mb flow from the EURO ensemble the next 8 days ending June 17th. Notice the westerly flow and rising heights over the nation. That opens the door to the warmth.

Now, the week 2 look for the period June 18th to the 24th. 500mb heights continue to rise with a pronounced ridge over the SC and EC United States.

Finally, in the week 3 period, we've built a strong ridge over the east with a trough over the west. That's the classic look of a heat wave here in the Midwest.

Here's week 1 temperature departures ending June 17th. The heat is building.

This is week 2 ending June 24th. Warmer still.

Last but not least, the week 3 temperature departures ending July 1st. Much of the nation is in the cooker.

Just for kicks, these are the mean 46-day temperature departures from now until July 26th. It's sure looking like summer is ready to explode across the country.

The Climate Prediction Center does indicate a slight to moderate risk of excessive heat in the 8-14 day period from Iowa and Missouri east.

The WPC 6-10 day temperature outlook.

The 8-14 day version of the same from WPC.

The deterministic EURO shows this for temperatures in the Quad Cities the next 10 days. Most likely, the 90s hold off until later in the weekend or next week.

Have you got the point yet? There is a lot of evidence heat and humidity is coming.

As far as rain is concerned, how much of that falls will be determined by the strength and position of the upper level heat dome the next 2–3 weeks. The northern periphery of the ridge will likely become an active breeding ground for thunderstorms. If you are under the heat dome, the air sinks, prohibiting storms. However, its edge is highlighted by large amounts of instability and CAPE that can generate strong to severe storm clusters with copious rain. It's hard to pinpoint the location of this zone of convection but rest assured it will be found somewhere over the Midwest. I would not be surprised if from time to time my region is subjected to this environment, which is known as the ring of fire.

The next 2 weeks the EURO shows the action clearly centered on NW Iowa, Minnesota, and NW Wisconsin with well above normal rainfall there. Under the heat ridge, you can see below normal amounts, shown in brown and even red further to the SE. From time to time, some of the storms to the NW may bleed SE into the region, especially across the north.

Before all this arrives, Tuesday will be another pleasant seasonal day, with highs reaching the upper 70s to low 80s. A stray storm or two is possible towards evening in the NW, but they look isolated as they tend to dissipate as they enter the region and stray from the instability that created them.

Wednesday and Thursday temperatures build and so does humidity. Highs of 85 to 90 look likely. Wednesday itself should be dry, but Wednesday night has strong storm potential with the threat of an MCS diving southeast out of Minnesota. The remnants of this convection enhances another front that comes through Thursday. The timing plays a major role in where Thursday's storms fire. Currently, the threat looks greatest south of I-80. Again, strong storms are expected where they form.

Behind the front Friday and Saturday, slightly cooler and less humid air prevails. This brief NW flow interlude is quickly erased Sunday with heat and humidity rapidly returning. Some models indicate dew points in the mid 70s which is really juicy and uncomfortable.

Bottom line, a pattern change is underway and steamy and at times stormy weather is on the table. Roll weather...TS

A PERSONAL INVITATION...

It's vacation season and there is no better place to visit than Galena and no better place to stay than my newly renovated ARBNB, the Little White Church. We are located in the bluffs, just 5 miles from the 2nd largest tourism destination in Illinois. In fact, "Tourist Destination", rated Galena as the top place to visit in the entire Midwest.

Now is the best time to enjoy all there is to offer, and my 5 star ARBNB is the perfect location to stay. Set in the rolling hills just outside of town, our completely renovated church is designed for you to unwind and relax.

We are an ARBNB Super host and can accommodate up to 8 guests. We've got cable, hi-speed WIFI, Sirius XM and a sparkling full kitchen. We are a home away from home and take great pride in cleanliness and comfort. All of our ratings have attained perfect 5-star status!

What about pricing? Right now, we are able to offer you our best pricing ever. We have 3 nights for the price of 2 which, depending on the days, can save as much as $300-$400 dollars. If you book directly through us, you can also eliminate booking fees that the chains charge and get minimal cleaning fees. It all adds up to exceptional deals at a destination worth visiting. Here's a link to some pictures. https://www.tswails.com/galena-airbnb

Carolyn and I will do all we can to make sure your stay is a memorable one. Please call or text Carolyn for more details and options and get a prime date while they are still available. Again, that's Carolyn at 563-676-3320.

Hope to see you soon,

Terry and Carolyn