THE GOOD, BAD, AND UGLY
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A FINAL PERSONAL APPEAL
Hi all. I'm still hoping for a few dollars to reach my fund-raising goal (I'm 99.9% there). Personally, I'm appealing to those of you who appreciate the reliability, honesty, accuracy, and knowledge of the site, to consider a donation, (especially if it helps with financial decisions related to your business). If you fall into any of these categories and find value in the effort put forth, I humbly ask that you make a $20 dollar investment into this unique and reliable product.
Thanks so much, T. Swails
A WHOLE LOTTA WEATHER GOING ON...
A very active weather pattern is in place that will keep us hopping in the weather department for at least the next week. Some of it is good, some bad, and some bordering on the side of ugly. Let's start with the good, that being record warmth and the first 80 degree highs of the year Friday.
Here's a list of new record maximum temperatures in my area Friday afternoon.
New Record Old record
BURLINGTON.......82 79 in 2012
CEDAR RAPIDS...81 75 in 2012
DUBUQUE............79 75 in 2012
MOLINE................83 78 in 2012
The hi-resolution GOES satellite shows the powerful storm in Kansas late Friday that was responsible for the records. Around it, is an intense circulation that, at the time of this image, was forcing unseasonably warm air into the Midwest. You can also see a line of severe thunderstorms erupting from SW Iowa into western Missouri. A jet max is carrying them NE at speeds up to 65 mph.
By 5:00pm Friday, a severe thunderstorm watch was up in central Iowa until 10:00pm. The risk of hazardous winds of up to 90 mph was indicated as high.
Further south in Missouri, where moisture and shear were more conducive to tornado potential, a tornado watch was issued until 11:00pm. The risk of winds of 90 mph and strong tornadoes was indicated as high.
Shortly after 5, this radar display shows 11 severe thunderstorm warnings in effect from Iowa into Missouri.
By 7:00pm, SPC issued this severe thunderstorm watch for the majority of my area until 2:00am.
As you can see, SPC indicated a high risk of severe wind was expected.
This tweet from the NWS shows the storms advancing on the Quad Cities around 9:45pm. By then, they had a history of producing 60 to 80 mph wind gusts. At this point, Washington, Iowa, had reported a gust of 78mph, Clinton, Iowa 75, and Galesburg, Illinois 70 mph. The storms were moving northeast at speeds of 50 to 70 mph. That will get you a ticket!
As of 3:00am Saturday, 470 reports of severe weather had reported by the Storm Prediction Center.
While the severe weather potential has passed our area to the southeast, SPC expects a major tornado and severe weather outbreak Saturday over the deep south. A rare high risk outlook (5 out of 5) has been issued from Mississippi into central Alabama. A significant tornado threat is indicated with the potential for violent long tracked tornadoes EF3 or greater.
BACK TO THE BAD AND THE UGLY...
So the bad news Saturday is that the 80 degree temperatures of Friday will be nothing more than a memory. The day will start with readings in the range of 52-58, but gusty west winds of 20-35+ will slowly drive temperatures downward and into the 40s in the afternoon. That's at least 30 degrees cooler than 24 hours earlier. After some periods of morning sun Saturday, passing clouds are expected to enter the region on cyclonic flow behind the departing storm.
Sunday should see more in the way of sunshine, but NW winds of 10-20 will keep temperatures cool in the 40s. Overall, it looks to be a pretty typical mid-March day.
More good news is found Monday and Tuesday as another rapid warm-up takes place. Highs should hit 60-65 Monday and reach 65 to 70 Tuesday. Both days should see ample sunshine.
Then, things get borderline ugly Wednesday as a front sinks into SE Iowa and a low pressure wave lifts northeast along it. Initially, it generates some showers in the NW half of my area, which gradually wrap around the storm and sink further into the remainder of my area. Wednesday night it's entirely possible the rain may change to snow with some minor accumulations possible, especially in the north. Much colder temperatures will be in place by Thursday, and highs may struggle to get out of the mid to upper 30s. Here's the surface depiction Wednesday night, showing the snow making its way into eastern Iowa and northern Illinois.
It's very early in the game and there will be plenty of warm air to overcome before any snow would occur. I'm not confident on the track yet, which will make or break any snow chances. We'll see, but at least for now it's on the table, and that is ugly if you ask me. Roll weather, and if you can spare a donation to get me to my goal, I will see to it that it's money well spent....TS
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