THE GIFT THAT KEEPS ON GIVING...
Today I start the post with something from the odd and unusual weather vault. In my previous blog, I mentioned how chilly it was to start Monday morning with lows in the mid to upper 30s over parts of eastern Iowa (low 40s were widespread). The Iowa Mesonet put out this featured map that shows how many years a specific location must go back to find colder temperatures in June. The blue indicates observation points where you need to go back at least 20 years. Solon, near Iowa City in Johnson County, Iowa reached 39. The last time a temperature colder than that was reported there in June was 1956, 67 years ago! Now that qualifies as unusual.
The system that brought the chilly fall-like conditions continues to influence our weather as it slowly fills and reluctantly creeps across the eastern Great Lakes. The upper air low is quite impressive for mid-June.
Spokes of energy (vorticity) have been rotating around the system causing sporadic showers. The first wave coming Monday night, the second Tuesday afternoon and evening. You can see an eye-like feature which is the center of circulation over Lake Huron. The western flank of the clouds spun back into my region Tuesday popping some isolated showers and sprinkles. They were heavier just to the east of my area.
Note how parts of Wisconsin and NE Illinois had a good soaking rain that would have benefitted my area significantly. Close but no cigar. Here's Tuesday's late afternoon radar image showing the rain shield.
Wednesday the system does make some progress eastward but only grudgingly. Mixed sun and clouds will prevail with the spotty shower threat confined to the far east (maybe a 20% shot). Temperatures are expected to warm into the low 80s NE to the mid to even upper 80s SW.
Looking at the latest model guidance, it looks to me like there is some semblance of the long standing omega block remaining intact much of the next 2 weeks. That my friends does not bode well for organized rain chances. The EURO in particular is extremely dry. The EURO ensemble control shows little if any rain the next 15 days resulting in rainfall deficits of 2 to 2.5 inches through June 28th.
Actual rainfall deficits look like this, disappointingly low.
Week 2 temperatures are heating up as well with 7 day average departures around 8 degrees above normal per day over the period June 21-28. Warm and dry is not what the doctor ordered!
Taking a look at the 500mb streamlines a week from now you can see our rainless issue is tied to the northerly component of the steering currents. There's no moisture in Canada where they originate from.
Here's the PWAT's (available water moisture) at that time, very meager by June 20th standards, roughly 30-35 percent of normal.
The experimental week 3-4 outlook from CPC shows above normal temperatures and below normal precipitation continuing. I wish I could say I disagreed.
As for temperatures the next 2 weeks, the EURO ensemble shows only a narrow range in highs that are clustered in the mid to upper 80s. several degrees above the norm.
In summation, the gift that keeps on giving "the blocking upper pattern", will keep on giving dry weather for the foreseeable future. Keep the rain dances going! Roll weather...TS
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