THE FINISH LINE...
Today is the day we say goodbye to the mild humid weather that's prevailed all week long. The finish line is comprised of a cold front which will sweep steadily across the region as the morning progresses. The wind shift will drop temperatures about 15 degrees in an hour with steady or slowly falling temperatures the remainder of the day. As you can see in the trend line of Quad City temperatures, we've been doing nicely since October 15th with only one day with a high below 60 and that was only 59.
Well, we can kiss that run of good fortune goodbye with the front entering my western counties in Iowa around 8:00am Friday. Check out how defined the front is and how temperatures rapidly drop 15+ degrees behind it.
When you leave the house early Friday morning, don't be deceived by the mid 60 degree warmth. By sunset you will be pleased you left with the coat as temperatures crash a good 25 degrees from morning levels.
At noon Friday, you can already see the leading edge of the cold front has passed the Mississippi.
By 9:00pm, temperatures are in the 30s just north and west of the Quad Cities and still dropping.
Wind chills by 9:00pm have cascaded into the 20s in the northwest and will be that way over the rest of the region by midnight.
Friday night most spots will be 30-35 degrees colder than 24 hours earlier.
Precipitation on the other hand comes to an end with the passage of the cold dry air Friday. Notice how water vapor goes from 1.25" ahead of the front to less than 0.20" behind it. Gusty NW winds up to 30 mph will usher in the dry air.
Late Saturday night or Sunday the cold air has temporarily slowed enough that a wave may trigger some light over-running showers. How far north these get is still a question with the southeast half most favored. If the showers can catch the north at some point Sunday, temperatures will be cold enough for some wet snow to mix in. Confidence remains low on this scenario. Here's what the EURO and GFS suggest for snow potential. Basically just trace amounts in my local area.
The EURO
The GFS
For sure the weekend will be sharply colder with considerable cloudiness. Highs Saturday may hold in the low 40s north to the mid/upper 40s south. Sunday appears even colder. Upper 30s are possible in the far north with low/mid 40s across the south. A brisk wind will make for some biting wind chills.
Monday morning a hard (killing freeze) is anticipated with lows in the low to mid 20s. With readings below the freezing mark much of the night, that should put an end to the growing season. Freeze warnings look likely! Plan accordingly. Daytime highs will only warm to the upper 30s and low 40s from north to south.
Halloween a compact upper air feature is poised to rapidly swing southeast into the area. It delivers a reinforcing shot of cold air that drives 850 temperatures (at the 5,000 ft. level) to minus 11 C. Significant instability results.
The instability combined with the vigorous lift from the vorticity should create brief but intense snow showers. Still 4 days away mesoscale details are yet to be resolved. However, if the EURO solution holds, I think there's a good chance most of us see snow showers Halloween. Additionally, with temperatures so cold aloft it would not be a stretch for an inch or two of accumulation over the NE half of my area if current trends holds. The EURO ensemble mean shows this for snow amounts Halloween.
Beyond the snow, Tuesday will be a cold one for trick or treaters. Highs will only be in the mid to upper 30s and by evening the ghosts and goblins can expect temperatures near freezing with wind chills in the low to mid 20s. I recommend costumes with multiple layers!
That closes out October and November begins just as frisky with morning lows in the low to mid 20s. Indeed, we have crossed the finish line! Welcome to your new reality. Roll weather...TS
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