THE FAT LADY IS SINGING...

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THE FAT LADY IS SINGING...

That shrill sound you'll be hearing the next couple days is not the wind, it's the fat lady singing her heart out. The party is over for this round of Indian Summer weather and now we move into the realm of winter. Make no mistake about it, the coldest air mass in six months is entering the playing field. Time to punt and turn the page.

The nemesis shows up nicely in the satellite image Wednesday night. You can see a deepening surface low tracking into Iowa with a strong cold front poised to sweep east of my area early Thursday.

Behind the front, winds become a factor Thursday morning with gusts eventually reaching 35 mph. Temperatures will respond little during the day with readings holding in the 40s NW and low 50s SE before falling later in the afternoon. Any showers exit the east early and sunshine will surge in with clearing skies holding until Thursday night when wrap around clouds sweep in from the northwest. Even with incoming clouds lows will still reach the low to mid 30s with brisk winds. By daybreak Friday wind chills reside well into the 20s.

Once established, wind chills in the range of 20-30 will last right through the balance of the weekend with actual highs Friday-Sunday remaining in the mid to upper 30s.

LETS TALK SNOWFLAKES....

As I've been saying for nearly a week, the first flakes of snow are in the cards Friday. The deep upper air low to the north will spin in vorticity and instability and snow showers will form Friday morning in the north and sweep southeast on a scattered basis into the rest of the region Friday afternoon. These are likely to be squally in nature and in some spots brief reductions in visibility are likely. Despite the warm ground, some minor grassy accumulations are possible, especially in the north half. Basically a dusting if that. The NWS in the Quad Cities put out this situational graphic.

The models depict this for snow totals. Bad sledding but snow just the same.

THE EURO

The GFS

The 3k NAM is a higher resolution model and it sees the snow squall potential indicating some amounts near an inch. I do think that's the worst case scenario.

After a lull Saturday, another disturbance drops SE in the northwest flow Saturday night. As early as Wednesday morning some models showed an inch or two of snow in a band that caught part of my area in a clipper. Since then, recent models are trending lighter and more towards what I believe is the correct scenario offered by the EURO. That involves a weak impulse that tracks north of my area limiting snowfall impacts this far south. There may still be some rain or snow showers in this set up but any appreciable accumulations of an inch or so would stay just to the north. We should be able to say definitively in the next 24 hours. For now the EURO has this for snow totals Saturday night.

To wrap this up, be prepared for big changes within the next day or so which includes, wind, much colder temperatures, and even our first flakes of snow. That's where I will leave it for now. Thanks for your time and if you appreciate the site please consider a donation by clicking the link below. The future of TSwails is in your kind and caring hands. Roll weather...TS