THE EURO SAYS NO TO WINTER
We are more than a week into November and so far not a flake of snow. Even worse, I don't see anything for at least another 10 days. Normally, I would not be that alarmed, as the first measurable snow in my area typically does not occur until November 15th north to November 26th south. Below you can see the average date of the first measurable snow as well as the earliest and latest occurrences as indicated by the NWS Quad Cities. I'm glad I wasn't in Burlington in 2010 when it took until February 5th to get a measurable snow event. That's beyond brutal when you consider Burlinton's earliest snowfall occurred on October 18th of 1972, almost 4 months earlier than 2010.
SAY IT AIN'T SO...
The EURO seasonal outlooks for December, January, and February have been issued. If you are a fan of winter, you may want to skip the next few paragraphs. Suffice it to say, the EURO is blow torching the nation with a mean 500mb jet stream flow that looks like this.
Such a pattern implies is a fast moving westerly jet that cuts across the northern tier of the U.S. Additionally, it appears that split flow is evident, which makes it even more difficult for cold air to penetrate the mid-latitudes.
Below is the mean temperature anomaly for the 3-month period, which indicates readings 1-2 degrees C. above normal in my region. But is it for real?
If you saw my winter forecast issued October 18th, https://www.tswails.com/single-post/winter-what-s-it-gonna-be-boy my conclusion was for near to perhaps slightly below normal temperatures with about average snowfall. This fresh outlook issued by the EURO certainly makes me wonder about the validity of my near to slightly below normal temperatures. Flat out, the latest EURO depiction of winter was a disappointing assessment.
On the other hand, I have seen many other seasonal forecasts that were busts in winters past. Before I give up on this winter due to what's shown on the EURO, I want to see what the next cycle of the MJO brings in December. There is currently a trend on the GEFS extended that shows an MJO rotation the last week of November into the first week of December where the MJO travels through phases 4, 5, and much of 6.
That's not good for cold and snow. As you can see in the temperature correlations, those are mild phases in late November and December.
However, if the rotation cycle continues as it appears it should, one can speculate that by mid-December we would be entering phases, 8, 1, and 2 to close out the month and carry into early January. The temperature correlations of those phases are decidedly cold in December.
If we can accomplish this December rotation, I think we get at least another 1 or 2 cold rotation cycles before the heart of winter is broken. How the MJO performs and how long it stays in warm or cold phases, is likely to have a major influence on winter. I see ups and downs, which I mentioned in my previous forecast in October. My cautionary statement is this: if we don't get a long or amplified MJO push into the cold stages in December, (or even worse we do, and it's still not wintry), that's a fatal blow for much cold and snow this winter. December is the key for me. If it's not turned cold, or shown reliably getting that way by December 15th, this could easily be the mild winter the EURO is signaling. I will have optimism until I'm sure of the MJO implications. Stay tuned.
I will also add this, not that it means anything for certain. The EURO extended ensemble (even with its warm winter outlook), shows this for snow through December 22nd. Much of it occurs after December 1st. Conflicting signals for sure, especially when you consider the amount of snow that's shown in the lake effect regions of the Great Lakes. To me, that's strong evidence that cold air is in the pattern driving those high lee shore snow totals. Of course, that's all dependent on this run of the model showing the right trend!
MOVING ON TO THE WEEKEND...
Our Friday is spent under high pressure, which brings crisp but pleasant conditions by early November standards. I look for highs in the upper 50s to low 60s. There may be some patchy morning fog, which yields to mostly sunny skies until later in the afternoon.
Our next system pivots in from the southwest Saturday, bringing a round of vorticity and forcing. The progressive nature of the system should keep amounts light and manageable. The rain arrives later in the afternoon, with the higher amounts indicated in the far southeast. Guidance suggests this for totals.
The EURO
The GFS
The 3k NAM
The precipitation which sweeps in on Saturday afternoon should diminish in the evening and end by daybreak Sunday. A stray brief shower is possible in the far north Sunday morning, but clouds should diminish from south to north as Sunday afternoon unfolds. Highs both days should remain largely in the mid 50s.
Behind the system, ridging prevails early next week, with another uptick in temperatures. Highs in the upper 50s to low 60s are anticipated Monday through Wednesday. Rain returns towards evening Wednesday. Behind this system, a sharp change to colder temperatures is expected the end of next week, with highs only in the 40s.
Hope your Friday is as beautiful as the day looks to be. Roll weather...TS
PEOPLE LOVE IT. OUR AIRBNB IS A MOST LOVED GUEST FAVORITE!
ANOTHER 5-STAR REVIEW....thanks Myriam
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7 GREAT REASONS TO VISIT GALENA
1. It’s Steeped In History
2. It’s Home To One Of The Best Main Streets In America
3. The Restaurants Are Amazing
4. There’s A Lot To Do Outdoors
5. You Don’t Have To Travel To The Mountains To Go Skiing
6. It’s A Great Place To Spend The Fourth Of July
7. Did I Mention The Shopping
