THE DEEP FREEZE
Since Friday night, the atmosphere has been growing colder and colder as a massive Arctic high bludgeons the nation. During the overnight, the core of the coldest air has moved directly overhead. In fact, at 850mb, the coldest air relative to average in all of North America, was on top of us. What an honor...not!
I will also bring to light, the current temperature in Dubuque is 13 below, 64 degrees colder than the high Friday of 51. Not to mention, the wind chill is 35 below, meaning it feels 86 degrees colder. Yikes, who asked for that!
Overnight, it remains to be seen precisely how cold we get at 850 (roughly 1 mile up), but both the EURO and GFS depict temperatures of minus 33 to minus 31 C. by daybreak. If attained, these readings would be below the coldest 850 temperatures ever measured at the NWS office in the Quad Cities going back to 1995. The current record is -29.5 C. on Christmas Eve day of 2022.
The GFS shows -32 in the Quad Cities
The EURO shows 31 below.
As I write this, winds are strong enough to support wind chill values of 25 to 35 below. These readings are sufficient for Cold Weather Advisories, and even an Extreme Cold Warning for areas along and north of Highway 30 where wind chills of -30 to -35 degrees F already a reality. At this point, the advisories go through noon Tuesday.
Actual lows look like this on the high resolution HRRR Tuesday morning.
Wind chills are harsh and dangerous early Tuesday, more than 30 below from HWY 30 north.
The brunt of the cold air begins to lift out Tuesday afternoon, but it won't be enough to save us from another frigid day. Highs will remain in the low to mid-single digits in all but the far south, where a +10 is possible. Wind chills will remain in the 15-25 below category all day in the north. The south is a bit better, more on the order of 10 below in the afternoon.
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WARMER WITH A SIDE OF LIGHT SNOW...
The next order of business revolves around moderating temperatures Wednesday. Return flow allows warm air advection sets up that over-rides the remaining cold air. That provides the lift for occasional light snow or flurries. Moisture is scant and forcing weak, so this event should not amount to much. That said, what snow falls should be fluffy. I would think most areas would see 1/2 inch or less. However, there is a chance a few locations could scare up an inch. I'm not holding my breath. Heck, 21 days into January here in Dubuque and we have had no measurable snow or rain. Here's what models are suggesting for snow totals.
The GFS
The EURO
The HRRR
The 3k NAM, currently a significant outlier. Big doubts about what's shown here.
One thing is for sure, we get out of the deep freeze Wednesday with highs of 25 north to perhaps 30 in the south. That's nothing special, but it sure beats where we've been in recent days. After the disturbance, we remain chilly
for the remainder of the week and then should start inching upward later in the weekend.
This is interesting. It's the 500mb mean jet on the EURO ensemble, February 2nd, (Ground Hog day). The big NW flow we are currently in is sheared off, and that zonal flow shown would seed the nation with mild Pacific air for at least a short period. It is a pattern change.
Look at the temperatures across the nation, February 2nd, mainly above normal. No more of that blue and green stuff we are currently seeing.
While it is a comfortable look the EURO is showing, it still has one consistent theme we've dealt with for months. That's dry air, and much of the country is shown with below normal precipitation. We just can't seem to break that cycle.
Certainly, this is a trend to watch, with February having the potential to start off in a friendly way if current data hold. More to come. Meantime, stay warm and hang in there. Roll weather...TS.
