THE CLOCK IS TICKING
Some major changes appear to be unfolding that will re-align our atmosphere in a dramatic way next week. The consequences are likely to be a sharp change to windy cold temperatures and what appears to be our first snowflakes. We've still got about a week before the hammer falls, but the evidence is mounting. Now it's a matter of the details, which will gradually unfold in coming days.
Last night I was sniffing this potential change, noticing the MJO entering phase 2 about the time the storm was advertised. Below, you can see the mean 500mb heights for phase 2 when neutral ENSO conditions exist in November. You can clearly spot the deep trough favored over the central Midwest, the foundation for a powerful storm.
Tuesday evening, the GFS is following the teleconnection to a tee, with this bomb centered over NE Iowa.
The EURO is just as impressive, depicting this at 500mb a day later.
At the surface, a 1050 high over Montana is putting the squeeze on a surface low in Minnesota that is projected to tank to 982mb. Not to be forgotten, is a major hurricane (likely to be a cat 3 or higher) aimed at Florida.
These are the peak winds shown from the tremendous pressure gradient that sets up by November 19th.
The morning before Thanksgiving, the GFS is indicating wind chills in NW MINNESOTA as low as 15 below. Teens are indicated locally. Just 24 hours ago, models were not indicating much of an Arctic connection. That has noticeably changed on the latest run of the GFS.
10 days from now, the GFS indicates 850mb temperatures as cold as -10 C in my area. 0 is the threshold necessary to produce snow at the surface. Readings have reached that level of cold as far south as the Gulf of Mexico.
November 21-22nd, backwash light snow or snow showers are indicated over much of the central Midwest, along with stiff NW winds.
By the time Thanksgiving rolls around, the GFS indicates an inch or two of snow may have fallen, mainly between November 20th-24th.
In summation, let's be clear. It's very early in the game here and important details are still in flux a week before this starts to happen. Track will be crucial to how much precipitation falls and when the transition to snow takes place. Odds are, amounts will range from a light dusting to perhaps an inch or two. Snow totals are low confidence at this distance, but if nothing else, it sure looks like we will be seeing our first flakes by November 21st.
The turn to much colder weather is of much higher confidence, especially with the EPO (Eastern Pacific Oscillation) flipping from positive to negative. That's a teleconnection that indicates a western ridge funneling cold air into the eastern 2/3rds of the nation. The MJO in a conducive phase 2 state also helps with cold.
The EURO
The GFS
Here's the ridging on the GFS that delivers the colder conditions.
RAINDROPS RETURN...
In the short term, attention turns to a progressive upper air low that streaks towards eastern Iowa. Clouds will be on the increase during the day, and showers are expected to spread into the SW later in the afternoon and spread across the rest of the region Wednesday evening. Models are a bit more aggressive with the strength of the energy but continue to show a trend of light rainfall with amounts generally 1/4 inch or less with a few small pockets seeing up to 1/3 inch. Here's what models are suggesting for rain totals ending Thursday morning.
The EURO
The GFS
The 3k NAM
The HRRR
Temperatures the remainder of the week will generally be a few degrees above normal, in the low to mid 50s.
The weekend continues to promise dry, mild weather before the big change takes place next week. A good time to put up the holiday lights or get things winterized. Have a stellar day and roll weather...TS.
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