THE CLASH OF THE SEASONS...
A complex multi-faceted storm system continues to slowly inch toward the Midwest. Over the next 5 days it will change our near summerlike weather to those more resembling winter. Temperatures which were in the 80s Tuesday will reach well into the 20s by Monday of next week. Wind chills may reach the low teens in spots. It conceivable that it could "feel" 70 degrees colder. It also appears showers and possibly a few thunderstorms Thursday will transition to scattered showers at times over the weekend. Finally, by Halloween day chances are real that snow showers will spin into the forecast. You name it, we've got it.
Thursday, we are still in the warm sector of the system with southerly winds and mild, moist air flowing freely into the Midwest. Occasional showers and a few thunderstorms are expected within the moist conveyor belt. Temperatures will again be well above normal with highs in the 60s north to low 70s south. Rains of 1/2 to 1 inch look possible from rain that falls overnight and Thursday.
This low level water vapor loop off the GOES 16 Satellite shows the moisture fetch aimed directly at the Midwest Wednesday night.
At 500mb, note the huge ridge in red over Alaska that is forcing cold air into the northern Rockies. Ahead of the western trough, Another strong ridge over the southeast is scooping warm moist air into the central U.S.
Look at the temperature contrast that's expected Thursday. Readings in Montana are in the teens while mid to upper 80s are cooking the southern Plains and lower Mississippi Valley.
THE CLASH OF THE SEASONS...
The big story for the central Midwest is the fact we are on borrowed time. The western trough is getting kicked to the east and a strong cold front is on a collision course with the region Friday. There are some minor timing issues but give or take an hour or two, the cold air is near the Mississippi and the Quad Cities around noon. This means Friday starts mild with readings well into the 60s. That departs quickly as a wall of cold is clearly evident marching towards eastern Iowa at 6:00am
At noon, the front has passed the Mississippi and is well into western Illinois.
Finally at 9:00pm Friday temperatures in the NW part of my area are back in the mid-30s, about 30 degrees colder than where they started the day.
Wind chills at 9:00pm are already in the mid 20s over the northwest as the cold air deepens.
At this point, the deep moisture has been scoured out by the cold air. Any showers or storms preceding the cold front are long gone from the region.
Late Saturday night or Sunday the cold air temporarily slows enough that a wave may ripple some showers into the region. How far north is still a question with the southeast half most favored. If the EURO is right, these would catch the north and by Sunday morning temperatures could be cold enough for some wet snow to mix in. Confidence on that is low.
For sure the weekend will be cold with considerable cloudiness. Highs Saturday may hold in the low 40s north to the mid 40s south. Sunday appears even colder. Upper 30s are possible in the north with low 40s across the south. Brisk winds will make for some biting wind chills.
A FLAKY HALLOWEEN
The next order of business centers on another lobe of energy, (what appears to be a clipper) arriving Halloween day. The EURO is the most aggressive with this feature showing a closed 500mb circulation deepening as it drops out of Canada into Iowa. It looks like this on the EURO.
Underneath the center is a cold pocket of air aloft with 850 temperatures (5,000 ft. up) shown at minus 11. That combined with the lift and associated vorticity is likely to cause instability and snow showers. Northeast of the center some minor accumulations are quite possible but determining the precise location is still a work in progress. I will stress the GFS does not show much development so this is still not a sure thing. That said, the EURO has been very consistent and I suspect it has the right general idea. I think many areas have a good chance of at least seeing their first snowflakes of the season.
Without a doubt, Halloween and the start of November looks quite wintry. We should have a better idea on the specifics in the next 24-48 hours. Until then, roll weather and enjoy the relative warmth of today. The end is in sight. Roll weather...TS
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