THE BRRR IS BACK IN WINTER...
September got off to an "unassuming" start Friday with cloud free skies and mild temperatures. That will pave the way for a toasty Labor Day weekend that sees highs in the 90s and no threat of rain. Overall, about what the doctor ordered for summer's last hurrah.
Considering today is the 19th consecutive day with no measurable rain, things have been rather quiet in the weather office for some time. As a result, I started thinking about winter to stimulate my mind. The idea of checking out the winter outlook from the Farmer's Almanac crossed my mind. Even though I'm not a believer in the weather prophecies it preaches, I always find it entertaining and worth a few moments of my time. So I pulled the trigger and did the search. The headlines read, "the BRRR is Back! Winter weather is making a comeback. After a warm winter anomaly last year, traditional cool temperatures and snowy weather conditions will return to the contiguous United States.
Essentially, the outlook shows the whole nation stormy and wet with an abundance of cold. The central Midwest is right in the thick of it. By all accounts, the winter would be cold with near to above normal snowfall if the Farmer's Almanac is on the mark.
Well, as much as I would love to see a big snowy winter around here, I am far from convinced that will be the case. The primary reason is that El Nino is coming on hard and that typically means a split flow with the polar jet to the north keeping much of the cold bottled up to the north. The sub tropical jet with all the storminess is active but often produces the wettest weather to the south and east of the Midwest. We can get some heavy precipitation events from time to time but the trick is getting enough cold air in place to see snow instead of rain. That involves some phasing of the two storm tracks and as I mentioned that's not easy to do with the split flow that commonly results.
I did check the latest trends from NCEP and they indicate a 95% chance of El Nino conditions through the Northern Hemisphere winter of 2023-24.
Not only that, during its peak November-January, the El Nino is expected to be strong with Nino 3.4 anomalies at or greater than 1.5 degrees C.
The only way I see this winter coming remotely close to what the Farmer's Almanac shows is if we get the strongest sea surface anomalies to position themselves in 3.4, (over the central Pacific away from the coast of South America).
That sort of set-up (known as a Modoki El Nino), would allow some cold air intrusions and the phasing mentioned above for snow systems. How that evolves is anybody's guess At least for now, the warmest SST departures are closer to the coast of South America which portends a relatively mild winter.
As I mentioned, the prognosis is for the El Nino to be strong during the winter months. The NWS in La Crosse, Wisconsin has done extensive research on temperature, precipitation, and snowfall patterns around the Midwest during strong enso events such as this since 1900. The verdict was that winter temperatures averaged near to above normal. 4 of Iowa's warmest winters occurred during strong El Ninos.
While there is a strong signal for warmth during strong El Ninos, precipitation can be highly variable across the region. Iowa saw their 2nd driest winter (1.28" in 1930-31), along with their 10th wettest winter (4.79" in 1972-73).
While seasonal snowfall tends to average below normal in the Midwest during strong El Niños, at least a third of them have produced above normal snowfall.
Something else I've noticed is that late October and November can be cold and usually have above normal snowfall. However, by Christmas the El Nino has kicked in resulting in warmer than average temperatures thereafter. I look for some version of that this year.
It's still early and there are other factors to consider so I'm still a bit on the fence regarding the final outcome, but my hunch is that this winter ends up warmer than normal with precipitation being the wild card. Traditionally, the sub-tropical jet and its storm track is displaced far enough south to keep the heavier precipitation from reaching the Midwest. That would lead to below normal amounts and most likely below normal snowfall.
There is a caveat though and that is climate change and warm sea surface temperatures throughout the globe that have increased water vapor. The analogs of 10-30 years ago aren't as reliable as they used to be. There are more extremes and the puzzle is more complex. For example, last winter the strong La Nina would argue for dry winter over the southwest. Instead, it was one of the wettest with flooding rains and record snow in the mountains of California. The overall winter defied long standing expectations there. Who's to say that couldn't happen this year over the Midwest. I'm not expecting it but I've seen some crazy unlikely weather events the past 5 years. As the saying goes, time will tell.
Meanwhile, here's what the Farmer's Almanac had for last winter. It was about as far off the mark as could be expected except in the NW and NC U.S. where North Dakota, Minnesota, and northern Wisconsin took it on the chin with both cold and snow.
With that, I say stay cool and have a sensational holiday weekend. Until next time, roll weather...TS
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