THE BLACK HOLE...

There have been numerous times on this site where I have referenced what I call the "black hole" effect. Usually I emphasize it in winter when winter storms find ways to avoid us by going north or south, anywhere but where I happen to be. While it seems to be a bigger issue with snow, it happens with precipitation in general, even in winter. Take a look at this earlier run of the EURO. It's showing the projected precipitation for the next 15 days ending January 31st. Where's the driest of the driest within the black hole? Wouldn't you know it's over my place in Dubuque with just .03" indicated!

Here's a closer perspective of my area, which is really struggling to see storms that produce any sort of meaningful precipitation, be it rain, sleet, snow, or rain.

Here in Dubuque, Friday will be another dry day, meaning January to date has produced no measurable precipitation through the first 17 days. I'm reasonably confident that there will be none the next 7 days, which would run the streak to at least 24 consecutive days here.

The driest January on record in Dubuque occurred in 1925 when just 0.11" was measured. Even if we get the .03" shown on the EURO, 2024 would easily end up as the driest ever with just .03" for the month.

Of course, if precipitation is minimal the next 2 weeks, so too will be snowfall. The 12Z EURO does not show any place locally with more than an inch the remainder of the month.

This only adds to the snowfall departures we've been steadily building since October. Dubuque leads the way in my area with a current deficit of 13.8 inches. If nothing more than a dusting occurs the next 15 days, the deficit climbs to 18 inches by the end of the month. On the other hand, in places like Cincinnati, Ohio, snowfall is well above normal with a current surplus of 11.0 inches.

Here you can see who the big winners and losers are in snowfall so far this January. If you are prospecting for white gold, head south young man!

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HERE COME THE ARCTIC HOUNDS...

Starting with the good news, Friday we are focused on a January thaw that produces the warmest readings of the month by far. Mixed sun and clouds will combine with SW winds to send temperatures well into the 40s, nearly 50 in the far south. Here's what the EURO shows for highs.

Most of us end up 18–20 degrees above the seasonal norms.

Attention then rapidly turns to an Arctic cold front that blitzes the region Friday night. There's a very slight chance it could kick up a brief shower in the southeast as it passes, with better chances further south in central Illinois. By Saturday night, the Arctic hounds are tuning up for a concert that gets full throated Sunday through Tuesday. By then, the 500mb jet stream is screeching into the heartland, delivering a mean shot of frigid air.

As you can see, it's being powered by extensive high pressure that reaches a centrally low reading of 1058mb.

At 850mb (roughly 1 mile above our heads) the coldest departures in North America relative to average are centered over Iowa late Sunday.

In fact, the EURO depicts an 850 temperature of -33 in Dubuque. At midnight Monday, it indicates -32 in the Quad Cities. That would break the existing lowest record of -29.5 at the NWS office, in Davenport, set December 24, 2022. Records go back to 1995.

Very fortunately, there will be no snow cover and some wind to keep that extreme cold from mixing to the ground. Even so, lows in the north by Tuesday morning could hit 12-13 below. 5-10 below looks strong south of interstate 80. Daytime highs Sunday-Tuesday should be mainly in the single digits

Wind chills starting Saturday will become impactful, especially Sunday-Tuesday, reaching 10 to 30 below zero. This will necessitate cold weather headlines from the NWS. Below are wind chills on the GFS Monday morning.

Temperatures should moderate nicely Wednesday and could approach freezing next Thursday. It's a brief warm-up as another burst of cold follows it quickly Friday. All things considered, today will be a picnic compared to what's coming this weekend. Don't say I didn't tell you so! With that, I'm headed back to hunker down in my black hole. Roll weather...TS