THE ARCTIC HOUNDS ARE STIRRING
When you are staring January in the face, it's not often that you get a good soaking rain followed by a 50 degree day. However, that has proven to be the new reality of winter here in the central Midwest. More often than not, when we get storms, cold air is lacking and the snowy sector of the storm finds a way to bypass us, especially in December. That was the case Friday, with most of my area picking up 1/4 to over 1/2 inch of rain. Those amounts are not official just yet, with light rain slowly coming to an end Friday night. These are Doppler estimates.
What's painful to a snow loving man like myself is that had this all been snow with a 10:1 ratio, the area would be digging out of 3–7 inches of white gold. Instead, no gold to be found anywhere. In fact, nearly all of what you see on this Friday evening radar is rain outside a mix in far NE Minnesota. That's weird.
Snowfall over all the Midwest other than a couple lake effect locations is well below normal. These are the current departures.
Here are the actual seasonal amounts measured through the morning of December 27th. The majority of my area has a seasonal accumulation of 1–3 inches. That's roughly 8–10 inches below normal.
I checked in with my weather historian Steve Gottschalk, with 60 years of personal observations taken in Cedar County, Iowa in the city of Lowden. I asked him if he could quantify my thoughts that Decembers were warmer and nothing like I remember in the 60s and 70s? As usual, he came through with the information needed. In fact, the trends he sent me are mind-bending. The 30-year average temperature from 1960-1989 was 22.2 degrees. The last 5 Decembers, the average has risen to get this, 30.3 degrees. That's an increase of 8.1 degrees! Note too, that 5 of his 10 warmest Decembers of all time have occurred since 2015. Here's his response to me.
Hey Terry,
Here's the December temperature data.
Since the 1980s, the 30-year average temperatures having been trending upward.
1960-89 - 22.2 degrees.
1970-99 - 23.4 degrees
1980-2009 - 23.8 degrees
1990-2019 - 25.4 degrees
2000-2024 - 26.0 degrees
For the decade 2010-19 - 29.9 degrees and from 2020-24 - 30.3.
I have had 7 of my top 10 warmest Decembers since 2001 and 5 of those since 2015.
Iowa has had 2 of it's top 10 warmest Decembers since 2015. Number 3 was in 2023 with 33.3 degrees and number 8 was in 2015 with 32.9 degrees.
Thanks for the stunning research, Steve!
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Moving forward, the wet weather is over for now and the region looks to remain just far enough NW to avoid another juicy system Saturday night that slides safely by to the southeast. Unfortunately, plenty of low level moisture remains for mostly cloudy skies both Saturday and Sunday. Temperatures are going to be quite mild, especially Saturday, when highs of 50 north to 55 south appear to be on track.
Readings like that are 22–25 degrees above normal. Wow....
With the system to our east streaking into the Great Lakes, temperatures begin to gradually tail off until they become more seasonal Tuesday in the low to mid 30s. That's when another respectable system rumbles across the Midwest Monday night and early Tuesday. The track is highly favorable for deformation band snows, but again, marginal cold air will produce rain initially that mixes with and turns to snow before ending. There is also the possibility the system goes far enough south that only the far south sees any precipitation. The EURO is the wettest and furthest north solution. It shows a late transition to snow with accumulations less than an inch.
The GFS is less amplified and has little if any snow or precipitation.
The bottom line is this is a low confidence forecast next week. We should have a better idea of how the event is trending later on Saturday.
A BAD MOON ARISING...
Once by us, the Tuesday system opens the door for much colder air to invade the Midwest the middle of next week, with highs dipping into the 20s. A potentially frigid surge of Arctic air is indicated even later next weekend or beyond that could be preceded by some snow. Models are still in the resolution phase of how this plays out, so timing and intensity of the cold remains in the works, but the Arctic hounds are stirring. For now, the EURO has come around to the idea of harsh cold showing up around January 7th. This is not etched in stone and let's hope it never gets to the point the EURO suggests as it drops temperatures below zero the 7th and still has them there through January 11th. It has a "high" of 16 below in Davenport, January 9th.
It depicts a low January 9th in Davenport of -23! No thank you sir...
It also indicates wind chills of 40-45 below. Things get real serious and life-threatening at -40, so this is a period that needs to be closely watched.
I will say the AO (Arctic Oscillation) is shown turning deeply negative, a teleconnection that strongly points to an Arctic air mass invading the Midwest. There is real support for some bitterly cold air, hopefully later trends back down some on the intensity. Stay tuned.
I still feel there is a good chance that snow accompanies the cold, but we are still at a distance that makes it nearly impossible to say where and how much. Often times in a situation like this, cold and snow go hand in hand. For the moment, the EURO indicates snow totals that look like this in the period January 5-9th. Forget about the numbers, as they are arbitrary this early in the game. It's the trend of snow to watch that's important around that 5-9th time frame.
Meantime, for those of you industrious, Saturday looks to be a fine day to wash the car or take down the Christmas lights with those 50 degree highs. If nothing else, we are another day closer to spring! Roll weather...TS
