THAT 70'S SHOW...
That 70's show, which can be hard to get in July is returning to your weather programming later this week. A healthy push of cool dry air is on the way and it will put to bed the warm muggy weather of recent days. The bigger question is whether or not showers and thunderstorms will attend the front as it crosses the area Wednesday?
On paper there are some promising ingredients which include moisture and warm temperatures. That's a combination that leads to thunderstorms when forcing and timing come together properly. As you can see, CAPE (convective available potential energy) is significant on the 3k NAM across much of the region around 3:00pm Wednesday afternoon. That certainly would open the door for scattered storms to fire, but where?
While most spots would at least have low chances of storms, opportunity would be greater ahead of the front where the CAPE is highest near or even east of the Mississippi. They would also be stronger in that area and a couple strong to severe storms would be possible mainly in Illinois. SPC does show a slight risk of severe storms in Illinois but the latest outlook has been adjusted east significantly in the past 24 hours and no longer includes SE Iowa and far western Illinois.
The 3k NAM shows storms developing in the late afternoon along the cold front from SE Wisconsin into EC Iowa.
The GFS, EURO and other models all indicate storm initiation near or a little further southeast. Mesoscale details not yet known will come into play as well as the speed of the front. The slower the better if you are in search of rain.
I should also mention that there could be some scattered storms around early Wednesday morning in my NW counties in Iowa. These would be the remnants of convection that formed Tuesday night in western Iowa. They will be in a weakening phase and are expected to fizzle out as they decay in the morning and are not expected to be much of a player. The late afternoon promises the best instability.
As for rainfall amounts, this is one of those situations where an inch or more of rain could fall in some of the stronger updrafts. However, the storms right now look to be broken in nature and heavier rains are likely to be spotty in nature. Most amounts are likely to be 1/4 inch or less. The best chances for the more beneficial rains exist near or east of the Mississippi, especially in NW Illinois. If timing is faster, eastern Iowa may see little if any rain. Anyway, here's what models are suggesting for rain totals.
THE GFS
The EURO
The 3K NAM
THE Weather Prediction Center outlook.
THE 70's MAKE A COMEBACK...
Behind the front a strong northwest flow sets up for much of the next 10 days. That initiates a period of below normal temperatures. This is where the 70s will make a comeback. The GFS is very bullish on the cool down with temperature departures that look like this the next10 days ending July 16th. On average that's the hottest week of summer so the timing would be perfect.
Here's the 500mb flow a week from now showing the unusual buckle that will bring cool nights and pleasant highs. The type of weather more typical of late August or early September.
The GFS meteogram has this for temperatures the next 9 days. Lots of nighttime lows in the 50s.
Unless we can get the SW edge of that pattern to reside over the area for some trough diving short waves, this is not a great pattern for rain. Moisture will be limited by the NW flow and when you do get an imbedded disturbance they tend to move quickly so any rain is in and out in a hurry. These are the 10 day rainfall departures on the GFS.
All things considered after Wednesday, the pattern certainly looks to be on the cool and dry side. Roll weather...TS
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