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Now that spring has officially sprung, the big trick is getting springlike weather to consistently occur. We are in the thick of what's known as transition season, where there's a steady fight for supremacy between the growing warmth and the remnants of winter's cold. That usually creates a push-pull pattern of up and down temperatures and regular weather systems that thrive on the ongoing battle.

What I'm seeing at 500mbs is not a pattern ripe for warm temperatures. The mean 7-day flow has a NW component that leaves the door open for some flirtations with cool air intrusions. It's not a classically cold look, but far from a warm one for late March standards.

Over the next 5–6 days, highs on the EURO remain in the 50s, generally below normal. Then we get a bump up before going down, then up, and down again. That's actually a rather typical looking temperature profile for early spring. Here's the sequence of extremes over the next 15 days.

The GFS indicates a similar trend.

When I say it's a typical look, you can see that it's reflected in the long range forecasts from the Climate Prediction Center. Temperatures in the 8-14 day outlook are right on the cusp of normal.

Precipitation looks to be near normal as well, with my local area close to the mean storm track. However, without a lot of warm air to work with, I doubt we see anything convectively driven that would produce substantially higher amounts. That should keep totals confined to the light to moderate category and below what's normal in the period March 28-April 4th.

THE WEEKEND AND BEYOND...

Saturday looks to be a crisp but quiet day. Highs will range from the mid 40s north to the low 50s south under mostly sunny skies.

The next system is upon us quickly Sunday and with better dynamics and slightly more moisture, it's likely to produce some light rain, especially in the morning. Highs Sunday should peak in the low 50s NW to the upper 50s SE. Colder air arrives Sunday night that holds highs Monday largely in the upper 40s to low 50s. Here's what models are indicating for rain potential Sunday. Amounts are generally 1/4 inch or less.

The EURO

The GFS

After Sunday, things look relatively quiet until next Thursday, when a compact system slides SE across the Midwest. A narrow band of precipitation is indicated that could bring some over-running rains to the central Midwest. More than anything, this keeps the baroclinic boundary near or south of my area, restricting temperatures to the upper 40s and 50s, several degrees below normal. As bad as it sounds, 2–3 months ago the same air mass would have kept us in the upper 20s to mid 30s. Progress is being made on a daily basis as temperatures steadily climb with the sun growing stronger by the day. Long live the sun! Roll weather and have a terrific weekend. TS.

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