SUMMERY START TO JUNE

Outstanding weather was seen around the Midwest Thursday, with sunny skies and highs in the low to mid 70s. Not only is that seasonal for late May, there was the added bonus of very low humidity levels of 25-30 percent in the afternoon. Here's the dew points as evening approached. Some upper 20s in NC. Illinois. Bone dry!

We do have another system approaching that has been giving models fits the fast few days. I have been of the mindset that the dry air I pointed to above is going to give the disturbance fits as a rain producer. What moisture and forcing can get in here Friday night may kick off a few showers, but they look few and far between outside of my far southern counties. The best chance of seeing anything that would settle the dust should be in far SE Iowa or WC Illinois. Otherwise, some of the clouds you see on Thursday night's satellite image will gradually increase and push east as Friday wears on. That should keep highs again confined to the low to mid 70s.

This is what models are indicating for rainfall Friday night and perhaps early Saturday. Essentially, amounts are quite light except in the far southeast.

The EURO

The GFS

Once we get rid of any pesky sprinkles or showers in the SE early Saturday, upper air heights begin to rise and push north. That development brings even warmer air and finally allows the return of deeper moisture that is more typical of June. Right on cue. However, before the real warmth arrives, Saturday will still see highs in the low to mid 70s due to considerable cloudiness.

Sunday through Tuesday, a summer start to June is anticipated thanks to highs that are expected to pop onto the range of 78-85. Dew points are also expected to reach well into the 60s, with a diffuse boundary wandering around Minnesota and northern Iowa. No doubt there will be instability with CAPE building. I could see some scattered showers and storms late Sunday night into Monday night, but the amount of forcing is a bit in question. Chances for anything strong and widespread, look better Tuesday evening and night, when a strong cool front streaks in from the west. Timing and mesoscale details are still in flux, but that looks to be our best shot at any severe weather.

Next Wednesday, the upper level winds at 500mb begin to buckle and much cooler air begins to dig into the Midwest. This is where models really diverge, with the EURO ensemble control creating an impressive cut-off low over Iowa.

That would generate plenty of instability for scattered showers along with a strong punch of cool air. Some temperatures next Thursday or Friday on the control are more than 20 degrees below normal.

The GFS is far more progressive and does not show the degree of digging or even a closed circulation at 500mb anywhere close to Iowa.

As a result, no showers and temperatures only a degree or two below normal.

I'm hoping the Euro control is too aggressive, as what it shows is a very cool, unsettled pattern all the way into mid-June. While cut-off lows are possible in early June, one of this magnitude and staying power is a bit unusual. Until I see more members of the ensemble mean move to the control's solution, I think more of a compromise between it and the GFS is in order. That still gets us a seasonal cool-down, but without the grunge and occasional showers the EURO shows. I would highly prefer that, so I'm rooting heavily for the GFS. More on that situation in coming days.

Meantime, here it is, Friday. Nothing like a short week. Have a solid weekend and roll weather...TS