SUMMER VACATION...

The Midwest is undergoing a pattern change that will rid the central U.S. of the heat and humidity the season is known for much of the next week. Hey, summer needs a vacation too!

These are the 7 day temperature departures the EURO is projecting over that period.

Here's the trough that's forecast to dig into the Great Lakes and buckle the flow in strongly from the north.

This comes as no surprise as it teleconnects well with the MJO (Madden Julien Oscillation) which cycles into Phase 1 in coming days. Notice in the phase analogs on the right how 8 is cool in both July and August.

With the strong northerly component aloft moisture is also going to be limited beginning Sunday. This view of the available water vapor clearly indicates the deep moisture that had been with us last week is going to be suppressed far to the south. (see the yellow and red colors).

You can see the levels of water vapor we'll be experiencing are about half of what's typical.

That leaves the period Sunday through next week relatively dry with rainfall departures such as this.

Before the dry weather locks in a few of us will have to dodge raindrops Saturday. Most of it is early Saturday morning and that will be confined to my far southern counties, especially south of HWY 34 in southeast Iowa and a bit of WC Illinois. It's due to an MCS that's been dropping southeast along a boundary laid out from SW Iowa into EC Missouri.

Later in the day a stronger push of cooler and much drier air will drop from north to south across the region. Along the leading edge there may be enough forcing for some widely scattered showers but they would be few and far between. Amounts (if any) would certainly be light as much of the moisture and energy is tied up further south with the advancing MCS.

So there you have it, the last day of July is upon us. I'm sure summer has plenty of pop left but the days are growing shorter and average temperatures are slowly declining. It may not seem like it but summer is fading and before you know it will be in the rear view mirror. Sigh.... With that I say carry on and enjoy the ride. Roll weather...TS