SUMMER CHECKS IN EARLY

For more than a week now, we've been focused on a heat wave that begins in earnest Sunday. Considering it's still only mid-June and the summer solstice doesn't officially occur until the 20th, this is going to be an impressive blast of heat and humidity. Without a doubt, summer is going to be checking in several days early this year.

Speaking of summer, the days start getting shorter in a week. That's kind of a radical concept, as we all know where that leads us in 6 months. I came up with a chart from the Iowa Mesonet which shows the feel like temperature in the Quad Cities since the start of the year. In early January, it reached a low of 40 below. With next week's heat and humidity, it is likely to feel like 100 degrees. Some quick math shows a range from the coldest to the hottest of 140 degrees. It highlights the fact we do live in a rather extreme climate. Here's the feels like range so far in 2024.

While we are talking about extremes, the U.S. long range climate model the CFSv2, came out with its winter outlook the other day. Get a load of this. It's showing an insanely cold winter, centered on Iowa and Illinois. La Niña winters (which this will be), favor harsh conditions over the northern tier of the nation. However, that usually translates to a mild winter over the south, with the Midwest somewhere in the middle (albeit with lots of extremes). Some wild things would have to happen for this to come to reality. Interesting if nothing else!

Thanks to high pressure, some fine weather was experienced around the region Friday. Some of that will carry over into Saturday, especially the dry aspect of our Friday. However, a disturbance lifting NE will generate enough warm advection for some passing clouds. Even so, highs should be a tad warmer in the low to mid 80s as winds return to the SW.

Saturday night and early Sunday, there is some evidence a few thunderstorms might clip the NW ahead of a warm front. However, the best forcing remains in NW Iowa and Minnesota, so if storms develop they are likely to be widely scattered with much of the area remaining dry. After the passage of the warm front, sunshine and warm, muggy conditions settle in for the afternoon hours of Father's Day. Highs of 90-94 are expected.

Much of next week, a strong upper level high builds and holds over the eastern U.S. The resulting heat dome looks like this at 500mb. Heights are aligned from SW to NE, drawing heat and humidity into the Midwest.

Temperature departures for several days will be 10-15 degrees above normal.

The EURO deterministic 12Z run shows these highs in the Quad Cities. There are 8 consecutive days with highs of 90 or above. There's a little break shown towards the end of the period.

As for rainfall, that is highly dependent on the position of the eastern ridge. Some guidance drifts it far enough east to allow scattered storms to penetrate the region after Wednesday. This would also knock a few degrees off temperatures. Other guidance holds the ridge in place or even retrogrades it west, which essentially locks the heat in place. The EURO is more in this camp with that long stretch of 90 degree weather. Its 10-day rainfall anomalies depict the NW fringe of the ridge (the area known as the ring of fire) nicely, with very large rainfall departures in Minnesota and Wisconsin. This would indicate repeated rounds of thunderstorms and MCS clusters. Further to the SE, under the ridge, storms struggle to fire with sinking motion and warm temperatures aloft. Fro now, my area is just on the outskirts of the stormier weather

The EURO cranks out some big rainfall numbers where storms fire to the NW, not surprising due to the abundance of moisture and instability.

The bottom line is we are going into a summer pattern that looks to have some staying power. The air conditioner will get a work-out going forward. Have a nice Father's Day weekend and roll weather...TS

A PERSONAL INVITATION...

It's vacation season and there is no better place to visit than Galena and no better place to stay than my newly renovated AIRBNB, the Little White Church. We are located in the bluffs, just 5 miles from the 2nd largest tourism destination in Illinois. In fact, "Tourist Destination", rated Galena as the 2023 top place to visit in the entire Midwest.

Now is the best time to enjoy all there is to offer, and my 5-star AIRBNB is the perfect location to stay. Set in the rolling hills just outside of town, our completely renovated church is designed for you to unwind and relax.

Again, we are an AIRBNB Super host and can accommodate up to 8 guests. We've got cable, hi-speed WIFI, Sirius XM and a sparkling full kitchen. We are a home away from home and take great pride in cleanliness and comfort. All of our ratings have attained perfect 5-star status!

What about pricing? Right now, we are able to offer you our best pricing ever. We have 3 nights for the price of 2 which, depending on the days, can save as much as $300-$400 dollars. If you book directly through us, you can also eliminate booking fees and taxes that the big chains charge. Cleaning fees are also drastically reduced. It all adds up to exceptional deals at a destination worth visiting. Here's a link to some pictures. https://www.tswails.com/galena-airbnb

Carolyn and I will do all we can to make sure your stay is a memorable one. Please call or text Carolyn for more details and options and get a prime date while they are still available. Again, that's Carolyn at 563-676-3320.

Hope to see you soon,

Terry and Carolyn

7 GREAT REASONS TO VISIT GALENA

1. It’s Steeped In History

2. It’s Home To One Of The Best Main Streets In America

3. The Restaurants Are Amazing

4. There’s A Lot To Do Outdoors

5. You Don’t Have To Travel To The Mountains To Go Skiing

6. It’s A Great Place To Spend The Fourth Of July

7. Did I Mention The Shopping?