STILL IN THE SNOW "GAME"
A MESSAGE FROM TSWAILS....
Hi everyone, I realize times are tough, and we are all feeling the pinch of inflation. That's the primary reason why this is a no pay site. However, I really could use your help to raise funds for the operational costs and time I invest in this site. Donations have been significantly down this year and to reach my goal of breaking even, I have a long way to go. Many of you are daily visitors and make financial or personal decisions based on the information presented. The majority of you appreciate the honesty, accuracy, and knowledge that you gain. If you fall into any of those categories, I ask that you make a $20 dollar investment in what I feel is a unique and reliable product. That way, we can keep things rolling as they have for more than 12 years. The future is in your hands, and I hugely appreciate the generosity of those who have contributed. So again, if you find value in the site and see the effort that's put into it, please consider a minimal donation to support TSwails today. Thanks for your time and loyalty, TS
SUPER BOWL SNOW UPDATE...
So here we are on a Super Bowl Sunday, gearing up for the big game, the food, and festivities. I'll be watching, but really, the big game for me is Wednesday. That's when the long talked about snowstorm slips into the Midwest. I've got a lot riding on the outcome, and the same goes for many of you, especially you guys and gals who push the snow. Business has been lean this year, and I know you are waiting and hoping for good news. I can't make it snow (or believe me, you would be buried). But I can give you a solid, honest assessment of where we are a day closer to the event. So, here goes!
With data now being sampled better, one would expect modeling to tighten up and show improved consistency on track and amounts. In theory, that is going to happen but as of yet, not so much. Just looking at the 500mb loading pattern, you can see a deep trough over the Rockies with ridging over the east. A classic negative PNA pattern with cold pressing due to a negative Arctic Oscillation. The battleground is right in the heart of the nation.
You can also see in green below, the energy (vorticity) that is set to drive the snow. What's keeping this from digging and turning into a beast locally, is the negative NAO and PNA. That generates confluent flow on the east side of the jet and limits additional phasing. In essence, that keeps the surface low from bombing out. If it were deepening, it would head for the lakes as a powerful storm. Instead, the confluent flow is producing a shearing effect and forcing it more easterly. It's still a strong warm advection event, but not the classic storm I would like to see.
At least for now, the EURO has made a slight move back to the NW, but it's hard to say that if that's a wobble or a permanent trend. It is a positive for snow locally and something to key on in future runs. I, for one, think the idea has merit due to strength of the tough and associated energy. However, it would be a lot to ask for it to come back much more due to the strong confluent flow aloft. That said, the shift has brought snow totals up 2-3 inches on the EURO from last night. Here's the comparison of the surface features, showing the current run first and last night's below it. Note the increase in blue colors and expansion to the NW today.
Latest EURO
Last night's EURO
That was the good news. The not so great news is the fact the GFS is really far south with its surface reflection with the low over Alabama instead of NW Kentucky as the EURO indicates. Surprisingly, it still shows moderate snow back to the Quad Cities, which seems odd with the center so far southeast. That does not really square up with me, and for that reason I like what the EURO is indicating better.
I believe my rational for liking the EURO is solid, but there is one problem. If I buy it lock, stock, and barrel, it has to be right, or its snow totals won't verify. I can't say either model is flat out correct, however my hunch is that we end up with something closer to what the EURO is depicting. If nothing else, a compromise of the two.
For now, it's a wait and see game but tonight and especially Monday, we should have some of these issues resolved as we enter the final 48 hours before snow begins.
With that, here is what you have been waiting for, the latest snowfall output. These are low confidence numbers and, I stress, are just raw model output, not specific forecasts. One may end up close to being right, or could be low or high. I would say for now to aim toward the middle until we see more concrete evidence.
The EURO, the higher end model for snow.
The GFS, it, keeps any 6 inch amounts way down south near the Missouri border.
Last but not least, the SREF (Short range ensemble forecast), It only goes out 87 hours and only shows 10:1 ratios. With ratios locally as high as 15:1, you can easily add a couple inches to what it shows. That would get it closer to the EURO.
Well, time to get those Nachos ready. I'll have the TV on the right and the computer on the left. New runs will be coming in during the first quarter. Which game do you think I'll be looking at. It sure would be nice to see some good news! Roll weather and if you can spare a donation, I will see to it that it's money well spent....TS
