STILL GRINDING...

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SNOW COVER INCREASES DRAMATICALLY...

Thanks to a massive storm which just clipped my far southeastern counties, snow cover has reached its highest levels of the winter so far across the nation. According to NOAA, nearly 51 percent of the country had at least 1 inch of snow on the ground Friday. That average snow depth was 4.7 inches.

Below you can see the massive area impacted by this weeks storm which left 12-18" totals from the southern Rockies to Maine. A very impressive over-running event that was not associated with a classic area of intense low pressure.

Here's another perspective of 72 hour totals ending Friday.

Thanks to this event, seasonal snow totals really expanded over the lower Midwest and northern half of the Ohio Valley. That's was a region that had been largely void of snow up until now. You can the seasonal totals below.

Over the past 30 days (since January 5th), here's the accumulated snowfall as reported by the Midwest Climate Summary.

As always, much of the snow action has avoided me. I'm a magnet for nothing burgers.

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WHERE DO WE GO FROM HERE...

Things are looking rather quiet in in the weather department around much of the central Midwest for roughly the next 7 days. With northwest flow moisture will be minimal and storms limited to clippers which are shown bypassing my area to the north. Through next Friday neither the EURO or GFS shows more than an inch of snow anywhere in my region.

The EURO

The GFS

The biggest issue I have to deal with is temperatures. There is a radical difference between the mild presentation of the EURO and the significantly colder GFS. You can see the comparison of the two below

The cold GFS

The mild EURO

The difference in my opinion is tied to the MJO (Madden Julien Oscillation) and how convection is handled in the Indian Ocean. Where the GFS and Australian models see it results in a colder phase 3 look. The EURO depiction inches the MJO into phase 4 which is much warmer. Most of this winter the GFS has actually outperformed the EURO and I'm leaning towards the colder GFS and a nod towards phase 3. This is what the GFS and AUSSIE models depict for the MJO into mid-February.

Below is the temperature analogs for phase 3 in February.

This is an interesting tussle and it will have big implications for the Midwest. Should the EURO win out, we completely avoid a couple of Arctic blasts the GFS shows around the 10th and 15th. Out of respect for the EURO I would say maybe a compromise solution is in order with a lean towards the GFS. We will know soon enough.

With that I conclude my post as I'm getting ready for weather school tomorrow. I've got a nice group assembled and it should be a good day. (when isn't it a good day when you talk weather all day long)? By the way, thanks to John Miller and CBMS mortgage services who have been a fantastic sponsor of the event. Until next time, roll weather...TS

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