SPLASH AND DASH...
Splash and dash thunderstorms popped again Tuesday, the byproduct of a back door front dropping through the Great Lakes. While rainfall was quite spotty, some fortunate individuals did see some brief heavy downpours. The front shows up nicely Tuesday evening thanks to the convergence ahead of it where moisture was pooled.
Once again, no severe weather was noted as bulk shear from the surface to 3km was only around 20-25kts. The low shear limits robust development of thunderstorm updrafts and restricts the ability for storms to maintain intensity. The storms go up and down in strength before dissipating. These are known as pulse thunderstorms which are commonplace when instability is present but shear is minimal.
Here's the Doppler rainfall estimates through Tuesday evening. Dark blue and green indicates where 1/2 inch or more was detected. Most of those totals were to the northwest of my area.
In the end the biggest impact of the front for most locations will be a a decrease in temperatures and humidity levels across the entire region. Dew points will drop into the 40s in the north Wednesday and be in the 40s areawide Thursday. Some spots may even dip into the upper 30s across the south. Here's what the 3k NAM indicates for dew points Thursday.
That leads to PWAT's (available water vapor) that are roughly 20% of normal. Again, exceptionally dry air for June.
Outside of hazy skies from Canadian forest fires, delightful weather is anticipated Wednesday through Friday with temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s, a few degrees below normal.
The next significant weather maker arrives Saturday night as a clipper like disturbance swings southeast in the northwest flow. As the system deepens it amplifies the mean trough over the Great Lakes and morphs into a deep closed upper low. Look at the bowling ball over over Lake Michigan Monday. That's the cold core center of circulation.
The first impacts of the system could could be felt as early as Saturday afternoon, more likely Saturday night when showers and isolated thunderstorms pop up ahead of the developing surface low. The track of the energy will be critical for rain starved areas as some organized rains are likely to the north of the surface low. Current indications have the low forming in Missouri and deepening Sunday as it's captured by the 500mb low and its energy. From there it swings into Michigan where it becomes a healthy little system. Here's what the surface map is projected to look like Sunday evening.
If the track of the EURO holds much of the heavier rains would occur just to the south and east of my area. The exception might be my far southern counties where rain totals greater than a half inch are shown below.
The GFS is more generous with amounts further north into my area. I have my doubts about the totals it cranks out which look like this.
Either way, its one of the better rain set-ups we've seen in the Midwest in some time. However, for us it's all contingent on the final track of the low which is still a bit in flux. I will be monitoring trends closely due to the significant need for moisture in many parts of my area.
For sure the storm will drive another cool dry air mass back into the Midwest Sunday that lingers into next week. The GFS tries to spin up another storm the middle of next week that again has some nice rain potential but I again question the amount of feedback there is in the model that is impacting intensity and amounts. That's way out there on my back burner.
Long range there's a big fight going on with the GFS flipping the pattern and building a heat dome over the south-central U.S. It's 500mb jet looks like this June 22nd.
Temperatures in Missouri are more than 25 degrees above normal.
That results in a huge expanse of 100 degree highs just to our south. We would avoid the century mark but would be in the ring of fire (the northern edge of the heat). That's a great place for strong storms with heavy rain.
At the same time the EURO has a deep trough digging into the Plains, a far different solution.
Instead of heat it shows a much cooler look, especially over the central U.S.
Instead of broiling in 100+ degree heat, Kansas and Missouri are in the 70s. While the EURO is far cooler, it remains a favorable pattern for rain with the right quadrant of the trough providing lift over the central Midwest. I think the GFS is initializing data wrong and I am leaning heavily towards the cooler EURO depiction.
Needless to say, this is two weeks out and confidence would typically be no better than moderate. But, in this case it's low end as models are struggling to get a handle on wave lengths and energy. Interesting to say the least.
Well, that's my 2 cents for today. Enjoy the nice weather the remainder of the week. Things could potentially get more active in the mid to long range period. I hope so, my grass does not have the lush look it did 3 weeks ago! Roll weather...TS
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