SO CLOSE, YET SO FAR AWAY
As expected, A healthy snow producing clipper cut across the HWY 20 corridor Thursday, laying down a hefty mantle of white just to the north of my local area. While there were some periods of light snow and freezing drizzle in my northern counties, amounts were meager, especially compared to what our neighbors experienced in Minnesota and Wisconsin. These are preliminary snowfall reports from the NWS. Just a tiny bit further SW on the track, and we would have been doing some serious shoveling. So close, yet so far away.
Here's a closer perspective of snowfall totals around the upper Midwest.
A few more plots for the road.
This is rather interesting as well. The surface low of 1012 millibars at 4:00pm Thursday was riding HWY 20 between Waterloo and Dubuque. With easterly winds to its north, temperatures were only in the 20s with snow falling. To the south, in what is known as the warm sector, it was essentially precipitation free and readings from I-80 south surged into the 40s with a S/SW wind. In fact, a 15 degree spread is evident from Dubuque (28 degrees) to Burlington (43 degrees).
The visible satellite at the same time shows the heavier, cyclonic circulation associated with the storms' vorticity center. It pains me to see just how close I was to shoveling 6 inches of powder. 45 miles north (chump change in the weather world) and I'm deep in the game! Ugh....
HOLIDAY SALE AT OUR GALENA AIRBNB (CLICK BANNER)
40% off a weekend or weekday stay in December-February. Call or text Carolyn now at 563 676 3320
From the looks of things, that's the last crack at seeing a white Christmas this year. High pressure builds into the Midwest Friday, sending a cold but seasonal air mass in for the weekend. Temperatures Friday will see little if any rise and, in some cases, may even fall a few degrees in the afternoon. That keeps most areas in the mid to upper 20s. Saturday promises to be even colder, with readings in the north struggling to get out of the upper teens. Low to mid 20s are expected elsewhere. Sunday, the core of the high and its coldest air shifts east. Warmer air begins to flood the Midwest, with highs getting into the low 30s north to the mid to upper 30s south.
Monday the thaw is even more pronounced with highs in most areas in the 40-45 degree range. The north could remain in the upper 30s due to the lingering effects of snow cover, which should largely be gone by evening.
CHRISTMAS THAW...
Both Christmas Eve day and Christmas day itself promise to be mild. By then, the MJO will have been in phase 6 for several days. As I've been alluding to for at least 2 weeks, if you want wintry weather, you do not want to be in phase 6 of the MJO oscillation in December. It promotes a W/SW flow aloft that cuts off cold air.
Look what happens to the cold. Here's December, 19th, 850mb temperatures were measured in the range of -6 to -8 C. You need 0 or colder at 850 to support snow at the surface.
Christmas day, 850 readings have risen to +5 or +6. For sure, no snow with a blow torch like that.
Highs will go from this Saturday
To this Christmas day. A nice 20 degree rise.
That puts most of the area 12–18 degrees above normal, the 25th. The Reindeer will have to work extra hard this year with all the additional warmth.
While it remains to be seen, there is a chance of rain working into the area by the afternoon of Christmas. I don't have great confidence in that scenario yet, but will of course be watching it closely in coming days.
Well, that gets us through Christmas, and that's all most of you are thinking about right now. Which reminds me, I've got important gifting matters to tend to in that regard. Time to get cracking! Happy Friday and roll weather...TS
