SHIVER ME TIMBERS

Before we get into the chill of Tuesday morning, I just wanted to touch on the historic flooding that occurred to the southeast over the weekend. 309 flash flood warnings were issued over 14 states, 30 percent of the continental United States.

The hardest hit area was western Kentucky, where 9-14 inch rain totals were observed.

This is the general region impacted by the 4 day siege of intense precipitation

Major to record flooding is anticipated in the boxes in blue. Red squares indicate moderate flooding.

As many as 23 people may have perished from the floods and related severe weather outbreak. While it's been quiet locally, April has gotten off to an extremely active severe weather start. Below, you can see the reports compiled by the Storm Prediction Center so far this month.

Here's the severe weather plots for the entire year to date. Only a week into April, the season has been hyperactive with 461 reports of tornadoes, 59 of which have been strong, EF2 or greater.

At this point in April, tornado numbers are far greater than average, very close to 15 year maximums.

Here in the central Midwest, the season doesn't even reach peak intensity until Mid-May and June. To some extent, our turn is coming. Note how the trend line goes up significantly the next 2–3 months as activity advances northward with the arrival of warmer weather.

SHIVER ME TIMBERS

As you probably noticed Monday, our week got off to a very fresh start thanks to the passage of a stout cold front. Highs never got out of the low to mid 40s, with a maximum of just 42 in Dubuque. Monday evening temperatures were already in the mid 30s.

By the time Tuesday morning rolls around, a hard freeze will have found us, with lows potentially hitting the low 20s in a few of the colder locations. Mid to upper 20s will be widespread. Shiver me timbers, mate. Hopefully, this will be the last time we get this low for many months to come.

After the frisky start, very dry air (dew points in the mid to upper teens) should provide ample sunshine. However, temperatures will struggle a bit, holding in the range of 45 north to 50 south. Fortunately, winds will be light and while it will be crisp, the afternoon hours look pleasant.

Wednesday and Thursday will have some trouble spots as a couple of minor clipper systems dive SE in the mean flow aloft. With moisture lacking and no real organized surface low, precipitation should be light. Between the two periods where showers are possible between now and Thursday, a few spots might scare up 1/10th of an inch (.20" tops). Even with a few showers, there should be quite a few dry hours, so this is far from a wash-out. However, the existence of clouds and a bit of rain will keep highs well below normal, especially Wednesday. If we can't thin the clouds a bit, highs could remain in the mid to upper 40s north. The south closer to the warm front should do better in the mid to upper 50s. Thursday, I would look for some improvement, particularly in the north where mid to upper 50s are likely. Upper 50s to low 60s are expected south.

I will also mention, if the GFS and 3K NAM are on their game, some snow may fall just to our NE Wednesday (sorry, a 4 letter word). Here's what the 3k shows for snow.

The GFS has this. The EURO indicates nothing, my model of preference.

Friday looks to be the last of this round of cool weather as another fast moving cold front holds highs to the 50s.

WELCOME WARMING

Finally, a bout of ridging arrives Saturday through Monday that initiates a warming trend. It's nothing exceptional but will be welcome after this week. Highs should bounce into the range of 60-65 Saturday and warm to around 65-71 Sunday. Both days look to be dry with partly to mostly sunny skies.

In closing, I will say, with west to NW flow prevailing much of the next two weeks, the EURO sees only moisture starved systems that are fast movers. During that 2-week period, the model indicates this for total rainfall.

These are the departures for that period, showing much of the nation with below normal precipitation. Certainly good news for our neighbors to the south who have been so wet and suffered devastating flooding.

Have a solid day and roll weather...TS

GATHER IN GALENA THIS EASTER

The Little White Church of Galena (my AIRBNB) is the perfect spot to gather the family this Easter. We still have an opening and would be thrilled to host you. We can accommodate 8 in our fully remodeled 1890 church. Take advantage of our special rate for either a 2 or 3 day stay. We've got all the amenities and we are a 5 star superhost. Call or text Carolyn 563-676-3320 for details. https://www.littlewhitechurchgalena.com/