SHE'S COMING IN HOT....
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A FINAL PERSONAL APPEAL
Hi all. I'm still hoping for a few dollars to reach my fund-raising goal (I'm on the cusp). Personally, I'm appealing to those of you who appreciate the reliability, honesty, accuracy, and knowledge of the site, to consider a donation, (especially if it helps with financial decisions related to your business). If you fall into any of these categories and find value in the effort put forth, I humbly ask that you make a $20 dollar investment into this unique and reliable product.
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WHAT A DIFFERENCE A DAY MAKES
Twas the night before the big storm and all through the house not a creature was stirring, outside of my computers "mouse". When out on the lawn there arose such a clatter, I sprang from my desk to see what was the matter. Away to the window I flew like a flash, tore open the shutters and threw up the sash. And what to my wondering eyes should appear, but the lion of March with a menacing snear. As dry leaves before the wild hurricane fly, when they meet an obstacle mount to the sky. He rose to his haunches and roared with might, the witch of spring is fully in sight. And then, in the twinkle of an eye, he sprang to the air amid the howl of the wind and the roar of the thunder. Away he flew like the down of a thistle, as the tempest engulfed him like the shrill of a whistle. But I heard him exclaim as he faded from sight. Merry spring to all, and to all a stormy night....
Make no mistake about it, the lion will roar today thanks to an intense spring storm capable of producing all facets of weather across the central Midwest. One common denominator in all areas will be high winds due to a 986mb surface low that cuts through southeast Iowa near the Quad Cities.
Below are some of the 10-meter wind gusts shown on the hi-res HRRR. Most of my counties north of I-80 come in with gusts of 55-60 mph.
SE Iowa and WC Illinois get off a bit better due to the fact the storm center (or eye) tracks directly overhead. In fact, there will be a time in the morning where winds under the eye are less than 10 mph near the Quad Cities. At the same time, they are screeching at 50 in Waterloo and 32 in Dubuque. Take a look below at what's shown around 8:00am Wednesday.
With the eye over the Quad Cities, the dry slot will be a major player with most of the rain through 2:00pm falling north of I-80, especially north of HWY 30.
Another forecast challenge is temperatures. As I mentioned in my last post, the 3k NAM was the first model to sense the influence of the cold Lake Michigan waters. The E/NE winds around the surface low create a thermal boundary that extends from about the Quad Cities to Chicago. If you note, that lines up with the southern extent of Lake Michigan. This lake enhanced front is not going to budge as the low travels along it. Thanks to its effects, temperatures range from 34 in Dubuque to 66 in Burlington at 3:00pm (nearly a 30 degree difference in 150 miles). The big boy models like the EURO and GFS did not handle this well, and the 3k's idea of a track further south verified. I've seen this a lot in the spring until Lake Michigan warms up in May, and the experience paid off with this system.
Another issue presents itself in the form of potential severe thunderstorms by afternoon ahead of the surface low, and its triple point, (where the stationary boundary exists to the east of the center and a cold front arcs to the southeast). Thanks to the dry slot in the morning, some sunshine is expected south of I-80, enough to allow the heating required to generate instability. CAPE values in the early afternoon reach up to 1100 J/kg on the 3k NAM.
The K index which quantifies thunderstorm development exceeds 30 from the Quad Cities southeast. That signifies thunderstorms are possible well north of I-80. What's more concerning is if anything surface based can pop in SE Iowa and WC Illinois.
Indeed, the 3k shows development and a broken line of storms from SW of the Quad Cities to St Louis. Shear is significant but as with last Friday's system, moisture is lacking with dew points at best reaching the mid 50s.
Even so, that could be enough to get some low topped supercells to fire around midday that would shift east by late afternoon into Illinois. The 3k does show updraft helicity indicating some surface based storms that could exhibit rotation from about the Quad Cities SE. There is a small window for a couple of tornado spin ups if things come together right. More likely, the strong updrafts would produce damaging winds. This is a very conditional set-up that we will need to monitor in the morning for my counties south of I-80.
The Storm Prediction Center does indicate a slight to enhanced level 3 risk of severe thunderstorms from east-central Iowa through much of Illinois.
This is not the end of the story. As the storm lifts into NE Illinois, it opens the door for colder air to surge southeast over all the region late Wednesday. As I mentioned earlier, it will be around all day from I-80 north where stiff E/NE winds will blow. However, it does not make inroads elsewhere until the afternoon. By 7:00pm. Temperatures will be in the low 30s north to the mid to upper 30s south and falling. Winds at this point will out of the N/NE on the order of 50-55 mph north to 40-45 mph south. Look at the wind chills around 9:00pm. That's a harsh change!
If that's not enough, the hardest part of this forecast is still to come, and that's where and how much snow falls? One of the unique aspects of this system is its ability to produce 2 bands of deformation snow. The first largely misses my area and is associated with the blizzard that will be ongoing Wednesday in parts of the NW half of Iowa into SE Minnesota. A blizzard warning is in effect in the counties in red, where 6–12 inches of snow is expected, along with winds of up to 65 mph. If you are traveling near or west of I-35, I would seriously reconsider. Travel is likely to be shut down in parts of Nebraska, Iowa, and Minnesota. Check with the DOT.
The eastern fringes of this first snow band may graze the NW part of my area late Wednesday afternoon or evening. However, accumulations are not expected to more than an inch at this point.
As the colder air digs into my southern counties early Wednesday evening, models are now consistent on the idea of some sort of energy transfer that creates a new deformation band. There is only loose agreement on the placement, but the general concept is that it encompass generally the SE half of my area. It's possible, after some severe weather in the early afternoon, parts of the far SE could see 1–3 inches of snow. This combined with 30-40 mph gusts could make for some pretty difficult travel, especially after dark and in the open country. If trends hold, I expect winter weather advisories will be issued by the NWS.
I need to stress, this is a fluid situation that has only recently come into play, making it low confidence to assess. That said, there is plenty of evidence in most guidance to suggest there is going to be a band of accumulating snow somewhere in the southeast 1/2 or so of my area. What's weird is that 2 significant snow bands develop from the same storm, but they don't overlap. That means there is going to be a gap that covers much of the NW half of my area where little snow falls. Here's what the latest model guidance is suggesting for accumulations from the two snow bands combined. Note they all have that gap, which makes this a super hard call.
The 3k NAM
The HRRR
The GFS
The EURO
The SREF short range ensembles.
When you consider the fact that warnings and advisories will be issued for extreme wind, snow, thunderstorms, and locally heavy precipitation, that's accompanied by radical temperature changes, this has the potential to be an epic weather day. The witch of spring, as the March lion says! Take it in, weatherheads, we don't get events like this very often. Roll weather, and if you can spare a donation to get me to my goal, it would be hugely appreciated. TS
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