SET TO SOAR...
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A FINAL PERSONAL APPEAL
Hi all. Just 99Â dollars to reach my fund-raising goal (I'm 99% there). Personally, I'm appealing to those of you who appreciate the reliability, honesty, accuracy, and knowledge of the site, to consider a donation, (especially if it helps with financial decisions related to your business). If you fall into any of these categories and find value in the effort put forth, I humbly ask that you make a $20 dollar investment into this unique and reliable product. Thanks so much, T. Swails
YOU ASKED FOR IT, AND SPRING LISTENED...
March is far from perfect, but the power of the sun is undeniable, its strength evident in the recent uptick in our temperatures. So far, 8 of the 11 days have been above normal, with at least 3 more days guaranteed this week. If things go well, Friday is a day that could reach records, with highs destined to climb into the mid to upper 70s. You asked for warmth, and spring listened!
In the big scheme, a progressive pattern looks as though it will remain intact the next 2 weeks. The negative PNA prevails, and that implies a ridge over the east and at least 3 strong systems that eject from the southwest. You can see below how each system sends a surge of mild air (potentially showers and storms) that is followed by brief but noticeable cool downs until the next storm reloads. The GFS indicates 3 individual periods where highs are shown reaching into the 70s. The duration of the warm air is significantly longer than the cool shots that follow. The meteogram for Davenport shows 11 of the next 16 days in the 60s and 70s, 2 other days reach 59. The average high (if the GFS verfies) over that period is 63 degrees in Davenport! The normal high today is 46.
The EURO is not as bullish, but the general trend of 3 warm spikes and well above normal readings is still there.
Breaking it down, these are the temperatures departures for the next 7 days ending March 19th.
The following week, March 18th through the 27th the 7 day departures look like this.
FRIDAY, WARM AND POTENTIALLY STORMY...
The next big shot of warmth with record-breaking potential comes Friday, when highs are shown reaching at least the mid to upper 70s. An 80 is not out of the question in the south. Feast your eyes on these numbers!
These are the associated departures, which could end up being a few degrees higher.
A PRICE TO PAY...
The warmth of Wednesday comes directly from a powerful storm system approaching from the Plains. Ahead of it, a 130mph 500mb jet max is shown sending the warmth and moisture into the Midwest.
Moisture is limited to start Friday, but rapidly improves by evening with the potent jet transport. PWATs reach nearly 1.25 inches on the EURO in SE Iowa around 7:00pm.
That fosters decent instability by early March standards, with CAPE reaching 1,200 to 1,400 j/kg. 0-6km shear reaches at least 60 knots which is impressive, however it's uni-directional which is not ideal for tornadoes.
It's likely that storms undergo explosive develop late Friday afternoon and rapidly grow linear (into a squall line). Initially, a couple discreet supercells could form with some tornado potential. However, wind and potentially hail would be the primary threats after that, although some brief QLCS tornado spin ups are possible. The storms will be fast moving and won't be in any one place long. As a result, rain totals should generally be light to moderate, despite some brief but intense downpours. Notice at 1:00pm how a capped atmosphere has limited storm development across Iowa.
However, storms quickly develop once strong forcing encounters the instability towards evening. By 7:00pm Friday the GFS shows a line of potentially severe storms entering my western counties.
The lightning flash density product on the EURO shows convectively driven storms form NC Iowa into WC Illinois.
I think there is a good chance that at least some part of my area goes under some sort of severe weather watch Friday. For now, SPC has upgraded its severe weather threat to enhanced as far north as the Quad Cities. A slight risk exists from there north.
Here's the odds of significant severe weather within 25 miles of a point Friday. From the Quad Cities south the upgrade now increases odds to 30-44 percent
This is what the EURO suggests for rain totals.
The GFS for the same period.
This is a powerful storm and the central pressure may again approach 980mb in my area. That makes it a wind machine, and gusts of 45-50 should be common later Friday through Saturday morning before diminishing as the storm pulls northeast. Temperatures Saturday should start out around 45-50 and hold steady or slowly fall as significantly colder air wraps in behind its circulation.
Aside from that, the next couple of days look pleasant as the warming gets underway that could bring record warmth and thunderstorms later Friday. Roll weather, and if you can spare a donation to get me to my goal, I will see to it that it's money well spent....TS
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