SAY HELLO TO SEPTEMBER...
August is just a memory now and for me, the extremes are what I will remember, especially the last week of the month. Looking at the temperatures in Waterloo you can see what I'm talking about. The 23rd the high was a sizzling 105. (For many of us it was the first time since 2012 the mercury hit the century mark). Eight days later the low on the 31st hit 47. That 58 degree spread is as dramatic as you will see during the month of August.
A similar situation was noted in the Quad Cities where the spread was 53 degrees
Then there's the rainfall. The month started with some promise with early rains and then a complete shut-down occurred the last half of the month. In Dubuque, the largest rain of the year (a record for the date 3.20 inches) fell the 14th. The final 17 days no measurable rain fell.
The month also provided a large range in rainfall with western and southern Iowa into central Illinois seeing amounts of 6-9 inches. further northeast it was a struggle for most places to get more than 1-2 inches.
Here's the monthly rainfall departures. It's easy to see where the storm track set-up from NW Iowa to SE Illinois.
With the lack of rain in my western and northern counties drought conditions have expanded. The latest drought monitor shows extreme drought creeping into parts of eastern Iowa. Severe to moderate drought is shown to be widespread west of the Mississippi.
The situation in Iowa has really deteriorated with 99.49 percent of the state in at least abnormally dry conditions. As of Thursday, 51 percent of Iowa is in either severe, extreme, or exceptional drought. Three months ago the number was 4.86 percent.
Short term rain chances continue to look minimal through at least Tuesday of next week as high pressure expands across the Midwest. The building ridge will get southerly winds back into the pattern and allow temperatures to take off over the holiday weekend. By Saturday readings will be pushing 90 and will likely get there Sunday-Tuesday. Labor Day may well be the hottest with mid 90s expected. Here's what the EURO meteogram looks like for the Quad Cities.
Clearly we have a hot weekend ahead but moisture continues to be lacking so at least into Labor Day, humidity will not be anywhere near the issue it was with our last surge of heat. Sunshine will remain plentiful through Tuesday when moisture starts inching back into the Midwest. At least for now, the forecast is essentially dry until Tuesday night or Wednesday. The EURO shows this for rain totals through next Wednesday.
Depending on mesoscale details pertaining to moisture, forcing, and timing, some worthwhile rain is possible the later parts of next week but it's far from a sure thing. We'll be needing it big time by then.
Guidance continues to point to above normal temperatures in the long term. Here's the week 1 temperature departures on the the EURO ending September 7th.
Week 2 is only marginally cooler ending September 15th. By in large, most of North America is on the toasty side. Summer is showing no signs of checking out just yet.
Short and simple, sunny, dry, and progressively warmer weather is on the table this holiday weekend. Stay safe and have fun, words to live by. Roll weather....TS
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